tag:quandyfactory.com,2020-11-3:/2020113 2020-11-3T12:00:00Z Quandy Factory Newsfeed - Blog Quandy Factory is the personal website of Ryan McGreal in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.. http://quandyfactory.com/blog/229/some_handy_running_calculations 2019-11-08T12:00:00Z Some Handy Running Calculations <p>I've recently <a href="https://www.strava.com/athletes/47143600">signed up with Strava</a> after almost a decade using <a href="https://runkeeper.com/user/RyanMcGreal/profile">Runkeeper</a>, and I've also recently resumed a regular weekly running program after a very sketchy few months of barely getting any runs in. I decided that with Around the Bay 2020 just five months away, it would be a good idea to start tracking my runs in terms of an ATB training program, naming each run in terms of which week of training it falls in, and which consecutive run it is during that week. So the first run of the first week would be 1-1, and the third run of the second week would be 2-3, and so on.</p> <p>Strava gives you some pretty good information in its running analysis, but I'm also interested in increasing my cadence toward 180 steps per minute, since this seems to be the most fruitful opportunity to increase my cruising speed. Strava does not calculate steps (one point for Runkeeper), but my Fitbit does, and I can use that value in combination with distance and time to calculate cadence and stride length.</p> <p>This is a bit tedious to do manually, so I have created a form where you input your steps, distance and time (in hours, minutes and seconds) and it calculates the rest for you.</p> <script type="text/javascript"> function calculate_running() { var steps = parseInt($('#calc_steps').val()); logit('steps = ' + steps); var distance = parseFloat($('#calc_distance').val()); logit('distance = ' + distance); var distance_metres = distance * 1000; logit('distance_metres = ' + distance_metres); var hours = parseInt($('#calc_hours').val()); logit('hours = ' + hours); var minutes = parseInt($('#calc_minutes').val()); logit('minutes = ' + minutes); var seconds = parseInt($('#calc_seconds').val()); logit('seconds = ' + seconds); var time_hours = hours + minutes/60 + seconds/60/60; logit('time_hours = ' + time_hours); var time_minutes = hours*60 + minutes + seconds/60; logit('time_minutes = ' + time_minutes); var speed = distance/time_hours; logit('speed = ' + speed); var pace = time_minutes / distance; logit('pace = ' + pace); var pace_minutes = Math.floor(pace); logit('pace_minutes = ' + pace_minutes); var pace_seconds = Math.round((pace - pace_minutes)* 60) logit('pace_seconds = ' + pace_seconds); var pace_text = pace_minutes.toString() + ':' + padit(pace_seconds, 2); logit('pace_text = ' + pace_text); var cadence = Math.round(steps / time_minutes); logit('cadence = ' + cadence); var stride_length = (distance_metres / steps).toFixed(2); logit('stride_length = ' + stride_length); var statement = commas(steps).toString() + ' steps for a cadence of ' + cadence.toString() + ' steps/min and a stride length of ' + stride_length.toString() + ' m/step with a speed of ' + speed.toFixed(2) + ' km/h and a pace of ' + pace_text + ' min/km.'; logit('statement = ' + statement); $('#output_distance_m').html(distance_metres); $('#output_time_hours').html(time_hours.toFixed(2)); $('#output_time_minutes').html(time_minutes.toFixed(2)); $('#output_speed').html(speed.toFixed(2)); $('#output_pace').html(pace_text); $('#output_cadence').html(cadence); $('#output_stride_length').html(stride_length); $('#output_statement').html(statement); } function logit(val) { return false; } function padit(val, size) { var s = '00000000' + val; return s.substr(s.length-size); } function commas(x) { return x.toString().replace(/\B(?=(\d{3})+(?!\d))/g, ","); } </script> <form> <table style="width: 400px"> <tr><th>Steps</th><td><input name="calc_steps" id="calc_steps" value="8331"></td></tr> <tr><th>Distance (km)</th><td><input name="calc_distance" id="calc_distance" value="9.5"></td></tr> <tr><th>Hours</th><td><input name="calc_hours" id="calc_hours" value="0"></td></tr> <tr><th>Minutes</th><td><input name="calc_minutes" id="calc_minutes" value="52"></td></tr> <tr><th>Seconds</th><td><input name="calc_seconds" id="calc_seconds" value="40"></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" style="text-align: center !important"><input type="button" name="calculate" id="calculate" value="Calculate" onclick="calculate_running(); return false" style="width: 90%; height: 2em"></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" style="font-weight: bold; text-align: centre !important">Calculations</td><tr> <tr><th>Dist (m)</th><td id="output_distance_m"></td></tr> <tr><th>Time (hours)</td><td id="output_time_hours"></td></tr> <tr><th>Time (mins)</th><td id="output_time_minutes"></td></tr> <tr><th>Speed (km/h)</th><td id="output_speed"></td></tr> <tr><th>Pace (min/km)</th><td id="output_pace"></td></tr> <tr><th>Cadence (steps/min)</th><td id="output_cadence"></td></tr> <tr><th>Stride Length (m)</th><td id="output_stride_length"></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" id="output_statement"></td></tr> </table> </form> Ryan McGreal 2 http://quandyfactory.com/blog/211/five+_years_of_running_and_fitness_part_three:_around_the_bay_again 2019-02-01T12:00:00Z Five+ Years of Running and Fitness, Part Three: Around the Bay Again <p><em>I've been trying to write up my five-year summary for several months now, and the analysis seems to keep getting bigger faster than I can finish it. So in an attempt to break the impasse, I'm publishing this review in several parts rather than all at once. This is Part Three of a series that will review of the experiences, challenges, insights, frustrations and successes of the past year.</em></p> <h3>Training for ATB 2018</h3> <p>Last year was my fourth year running the 30 km Around the Bay Road Race, and like my third time, my training was a bit spotty. I missed several training long runs, and in fact I never actually managed to complete a full 30-km training run. The longest runs I did were around 28 km. </p> <p>One particular training run was a disaster. On February 25, 2018, I got to around the halfway point in a 24 km long run and everything went to hell. My calves got sore, my knee tightened up, I got stitches in my side, and my energy just completely tanked. </p> <p>I repeatedly had to stop running and just walk for a while. I slowly shambled home feeling sick to my stomach. When I got home, I was violently ill and then slept for 14 hours. Turns out I was coming down with a rotten bug. </p> <p>Luckily, most of my long runs went better than this one.</p> <h3>Weight-Lifting</h3> <p>However, I have found over the couple of years that I've been able to achieve better running performance with less actual running. I believe a significant factor has been my regular weight-lifting sessions at the fitness centre. </p> <p>The research is clear: weight-lifting improves muscle strength, balance and posture, and makes for faster, stronger running with fewer injuries. I have had great success <a href="/blog/210/five_years_of_running_and_fitness_part_two_sitters_knee_and_hiit">mitigating my knee problem</a> with three days a week of weight-lifting. </p> <p>Look, I'm not a powerlifter hardbody getting ripped or swole or anything like that. I'm just trying to focus on developing and maintaining a more stable core, a stronger lower back, more functional day-to-day strength and a smoother, more efficient running form.</p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/ryan_mcgreal_gym_2018_12_14.jpg" alt="Photo on December 14, 2018" title="Photo on December 14, 2018"><br> Photo on December 14, 2018</p> <h3>Race Day</h3> <p>My goal for ATB 2018 was to finish the race in less than two hours and 50 minutes, my finishing time from 2017. Anything beyond that would be gravy.</p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/atb_2018_starting_line.jpg" alt="Around the Bay 2018 Starting Line" title="Around the Bay 2018 Starting Line"><br> Around the Bay 2018 Starting Line</p> <p>I decided to run without audible updates from my run tracking app and just go by feel, and I seemed to be making good time. Around the halfway mark I managed to catch up to the 2:45 Pace Bunny, so I just tracked him for the rest of the race. </p> <p>For the first ten kilometres, I followed a breathing pattern of inhale four steps, exhale four steps. Every fourth set, I would inhale for five in order to switch the start of the cycle to my opposite foot. (This may seem silly, but as <a href="https://www.runnersworld.com/training/a20822091/running-on-air-breathing-technique/">running coach Budd Coates points out</a>, the evidence suggests that always inhaling from the same foot can lead to imbalance injuries.) Going up hills - the overpasses on Burlington Street/Nikola Tesla Parkway - I shifted to an inhale-for-three, exhale-for-three pattern to get more oxygen.</p> <p>For the second ten kilometres, when my muscles were starting to get a bit tired and needed more oxygen, I switched to an inhale-for-four, exhale-for-three pattern to try and maintain a brisk pace. I kept my speed above 11 km/h but I was starting to feel like I wouldn't be able to maintain it for too much longer without digging into my capital reserves.</p> <p>Sure enough, my pace started to flag during the last ten kilometres, the most difficult part of the course along North Shore Boulevard in Burlington. It contains three famously punishing hills: the long climb up to LaSalle Park, the slightly smaller hill just west of LaSalle Park, and the brutal Valley Inn Road hill coming up from Grindstone Creek. </p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/chart_atb_2018_elevation_change.png" alt="Chart: Around the Bay 2018 Elevation Changes (Image Source: Runkeeper)" title="Chart: Around the Bay 2018 Elevation Changes (Image Source: Runkeeper)"><br> Chart: Around the Bay 2018 Elevation Changes (Image Source: Runkeeper)</p> <p>I was really digging deep by this point but I was determined to keep up with the Pace Bunny, so I bore down to an inhale-for-two, exhale-for-two breathing pattern up the hills, and tried to get back to an inhale-for-four, exhale-for-three pattern coming down off them. </p> <p>By the last few kilometres - all downhill, thankfully, I was feeling gassed. For the kilometre after Valley Inn, my average speed fell to 10.4 km/h. Thankfully, the Pace Bunny was relentlessly upbeat and encouraging, and his optimism was infectious. We were still in good shape to finish in 2:45, despite running the next couple of kilometres in the high tens.</p> <p>As always, I was buoyed and borne along by the encouragement of the thousands of friendly strangers who lined the course, plus beloved family members and friends who were on hand to cheer me on. </p> <h3>Strong Finish</h3> <p>Around kilometre 29, a friend of mine ran out onto the course to pace me for a couple of minutes. He is an extraordinary runner, joyful and absurdly fast, and he gave me some excellent advice: "relax your body, open up your stride and pass ten or twenty people before the finish line." </p> <p>Sure enough, that last kilometre I averaged 11.15 km/h and swept into the finish line feeling strong and confident.</p> <p>In a chart of my average speed for each kilometre of the race, you can see it improve steadily for the first ten km, peter off over the second ten km, and then get increasingly erratic over the last ten km before finishing strong.</p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/chart_atb_speed_per_kilometre_2018.png" alt="Chart: ATB 2018 Speed Per Kilometre" title="Chart: ATB 2018 Speed Per Kilometre"><br> Chart: ATB 2018 Speed Per Kilometre</p> <p>My finishing <em>gun time</em> (from when the race started until I crossed the finish line) was 2:46:33 and my <em>chip time</em> (from when I crossed the starting line until I crossed the finish line) was 2:44:29. That's a new personal record for me, well below my target time, and it shaved more than five minutes off my previous record last year.</p> <table> <caption>Around the Bay Race Results, 2015-2018</caption> <thead> <tr> <th></th> <th>2015</th> <th>2016</th> <th>2017</th> <th>2018</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>Bib</td> <td>1237</td> <td>228</td> <td>4296</td> <td>3730</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Guntime</td> <td>3:22:19</td> <td>2:54:45</td> <td>2:53:30</td> <td>2:46:33</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Chiptime</td> <td>3:17:11</td> <td>2:52:32</td> <td>2:50:03</td> <td>2:44:29</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Overall Place</td> <td>4325/5755</td> <td>2254/5259</td> <td>1836/4244</td> <td>1404/3921</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Overall Percentile</td> <td>75%</td> <td>43%</td> <td>43%</td> <td>36%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gender Place (M)</td> <td>2534/3053</td> <td>1509/2669</td> <td>1247/2224</td> <td>1032/2193</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gender Percentile</td> <td>83%</td> <td>57%</td> <td>56%</td> <td>47%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Age Place (M40-44)</td> <td> 414/495</td> <td>267/443</td> <td>201/327</td> <td>169/341</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Age Percentile</td> <td>84%</td> <td>60%</td> <td>61%</td> <td>50%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/chart_atb_completion_time_by_year_2015-2018.png" alt="Chart: ATB Completion Time by Year, 2015-2018" title="Chart: ATB Completion Time by Year, 2015-2018"><br> Chart: ATB Completion Time by Year, 2015-2018</p> <h3>ATB 2019</h3> <p>I've signed up for the ATB 2019 30 km race and started my dedicated training long runs in the beginning of January. I'm determined to get in at least a couple of 30 km training runs this time, and so far my weekend long runs are in the 21-23 km range. </p> <p>I'm aiming for a 24 km long run this weekend, 25.5 km on February 10, 27 km on February 17, 28.5 km on February 24, then a couple of 30 km runs on March 3 and 10, with two weeks of tapering on March 17 and 24 and the race itself on March 31.</p> <p>On January 14, 2019 I bought a new pair of shoes. As always, I went with Mizuno Wave Riders, general-purpose neutral workhorse trainers that feel like they were custom-made specifically for my feet.</p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/new_shoes_2019_01_14.jpg" alt="New Shoes, January 14, 2019" title="New Shoes, January 14, 2019"><br> New Shoes, January 14, 2019</p> <p>My only quibble with these shoes is that they don't seem to be quite as durable as previous versions of the shoe. I generally retire my shoes from running after 800 km and turn them into walking shoes, but the shoes that this pair replaced are already starting to tear in the mesh fabric around the toe box.</p> <h3>Winter Running</h3> <p>The past couple of winters I have became a bit wimpy about running outside in bad weather. This might have something to do with finally having access to dreadmills at the gym. But this week, with the polar vortex hanging over North America and temperatures dropping down to -25 Celsius, I've been spending more time on <a href="/blog/210/five_years_of_running_and_fitness_part_two_sitters_knee_and_hiit">High Intensity Interval Training</a> indoors rather than long, painful runs outside.</p> <p>That said, here's my general guide for figuring out how to dress based on the temperature:</p> <table> <caption>Running Clothes by Temperature</caption> <thead> <tr> <th>Temp (Celsius)</th> <th>Top</th> <th>Bottom</th> <th>Extra</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>Above 12</td> <td>t-shirt</td> <td>shorts</td> <td></td> </tr> <tr> <td>8 to 12</td> <td>long sleeve shirt</td> <td>shorts</td> <td></td> </tr> <tr> <td>3 to 8</td> <td>t-shirt and long sleeve shirt</td> <td>shorts</td> <td></td> </tr> <tr> <td>-1 to 3</td> <td>hoodie and long sleeve shirt</td> <td>shorts</td> <td>gloves</td> </tr> <tr> <td>-4 to -1</td> <td>winter shell and long sleeve shirt</td> <td>shorts</td> <td>gloves and hat</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Below -4</td> <td>winter shell and long sleeve shirt</td> <td>leggings</td> <td>gloves, hat, scarf</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>The hardest part is pushing myself out the door. The first five minutes are chilly, then I warm up between five and ten minutes and if I've dressed properly, I feel comfortable the rest of the run. </p> <p>There are other ways to tweak my temperature. If I'm getting too warm, I can pull down the zipper on my coat, take off my hat and/or gloves, roll up my sleeves, and ease off the pace to produce less body heat. If I'm a bit too cold, I can put my had and glove back on, pull my zipper back up, and run harder to produce more body heat. </p> <p>There's something really fun about getting to the end of a hard run on a really cold day, because steam pours off my body. As my friend Adrian put it a few years ago, "I feel like a wizard!"</p> Ryan McGreal 2 http://quandyfactory.com/blog/210/five+_years_of_running_and_fitness_part_two:_sitters_knee_and_hiit 2019-01-31T12:00:00Z Five+ Years of Running and Fitness, Part Two: Sitter's Knee and HIIT <p><em>I've been trying to write up my five-year summary for several months now, and the analysis seems to keep getting bigger faster than I can finish it. So in an attempt to break the impasse, I'm publishing this review in several parts rather than all at once. This is Part Two of a series that will review of the experiences, challenges, insights, frustrations and successes of the past year.</em></p> <h3>Knee Trouble</h3> <p>Before I started running, I had trouble with my right knee. It would click painfully on stairs and I couldn't squat deeply. After I started running, I actually found that the problems mostly went away. It would still click on stairs, but not painfully. </p> <p>In some ways, my knee became the canary in the coal mine: for example, it would start grumbling once my shoes passed around 800 kilometres of use or when I was running with poor form, for example when I got tired.</p> <p>I started having more trouble with it during my training for <a href="/blog/183/my_first_marathon_or_a_supposedly_fun_thing_i_wont_do_again_until_ive_had_time_to_forget_how_gruelling_it_was">my first marathon</a> when my weekly distances crept past 60 kilometres. Fortunately, I've been able to get the situation under control and now rarely experience any pain.</p> <h3>Sitter's Knee</h3> <p>So-called runner's knee - the medical name is <em>patellofemoral pain syndrome</em> or PFPS - is something of a blanket term for inflammation and pain where the kneecap sits on the thigh bone. </p> <p>While conventional wisdom assumes it's caused by running (hence the nickname), the fact is that running merely triggers the symptoms - especially after significantly ramping up distance and/or intensity to which body is not accustomed. </p> <p>The underlying cause is usually bad running form due to poor musculoskeletal fitness - specifically, tight hamstrings, weak glutes and quadriceps, and poor core strength leading to instability. Without a network of strong, well-functioning muscles throughout the kinetic chain, the knee tends to collapse inward during impact, leading to poor tracking of the kneecap and irritation of the cartilage that holds it in place.</p> <p>These underlying muscular factors, in turn, are primarily caused by extended sitting, which leaves the hamstrings too tight and the quadriceps too weak to support good running form. (This is just one of the many reasons <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/apps/g/page/national/the-health-hazards-of-sitting/750/">extended sitting is extremely bad for your health</a>.) </p> <p>This condition should really be called <em>sitter's knee</em>, not runner's knee!</p> <p>Before I started running, I spent a decade and a half sitting all day at work (I'm a software programmer). In late 2014, after attending a health conference and learning more about the dangers of sitting, I transitioned to a standing desk. It took a month to get used to it and tweak the ergonomics, but I never looked back. Now I work upright rather than sitting, and in addition I try to keep moving as much as possible while I work.</p> <p>When I analyzed my running form during and after my marathon training, I noticed that when I strike the ground with my right foot, my right hip would dip a bit, causing my right knee to buckle slightly inward. That, in turn, caused my kneecap to move off-track, causing irritation and soreness.</p> <h3>Core Strength Needed</h3> <p>It seemed to me that I would get some real benefit from focusing on strengthening my core, glutes and thigh muscles to improve the tracking of my knee.</p> <p>In June of 2017, I took the logical next step and joined a fitness centre: <a href="https://mcmasterinnovationpark.ca/fitness-facility">McMaster Innovation Park Fitness Facility</a>, managed by the wonderful fitness trainer Maureen Graszat. I generally work out three times a week, focusing on fundamental movements and core strength: bicep curls, bent rows, squats, deadlifts, bench presses, shoulder presses, bench flyes, lunges, planks and so on.</p> <p>As I've gradually gotten stronger, I have found that my knee no longer troubles me. In addition, my running economy and form have steadily improved: I find I can run farther and faster with less perceived effort.</p> <h3>High-Intensity Interval Training</h3> <p>As my knee has gotten stronger and more reliable, another change I've made to my running program is that once or twice a week I do a half-hour of high-intensity interval training (HIIT) on the dreadmill at the fitness centre. </p> <p>HIIT involves ramping up to a level of aerobic intensity that repeatedly raises your heart rate up to 80-90 percent of your maximum heart rate (calculated as 220 minus your age) for a short time, then lowers the intensity for a short break before going back to the higher intensity. </p> <p>My maximum heart rate is 220 - 45 = 185, so my HIIT target heart rate is in the 150 to 167 beats per minute range (80-90 percent of 185).</p> <p>Here's a recent run in which I warmed up at around 11.25 km/h (7 mph), then alternated between bouts of 60 seconds at 14.5 km/h (9 mph) and 90 seconds at 12.5 km/h. You can see the oscillation in my heart rate in this chart from Fitbit:</p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/fitbit_heart_rate_hiit.jpg" alt="Chart: heart rate during 30 minute HIIT on the dreadmill" title="Chart: heart rate during 30 minute HIIT on the dreadmill"><br> Chart: heart rate during 30 minute HIIT on the dreadmill</p> <p>An important measure of fitness is something called VO2 Max: it's the maximum rate at which your muscles can utilize oxygen while exercising. While the ultimate peak potential for your VO2 Max is determined by genetics, your performance within that potential range at any given point is largely a function of your fitness training, and HIIT is a highly effective way of increasing your fitness. </p> <p>This stuff really matters: a higher VO2 Max predicts a lower risk of cardiovascular disease, all-risk mortality and specific mortality for certain types of cancer. And of course, a lower VO2 Max predicts a higher risk of all these things. </p> <p>A higher VO2 Max also means running feels easier at any given pace, so there's a practical near-term benefit as well. </p> <p>Fitbit calculates something that it calls a Cardio Fitness Level, which is a rough proxy for VO2 max. According to my profile, I have a Cardio Fitness Level of 46, which the app describes as "Very Good for men your age". </p> <p>Still, knowing that there is an "Excellent" level beyond where I am today makes me feel a competitive drive to improve, hence my willingness to embrace HIIT.</p> Ryan McGreal 2 http://quandyfactory.com/blog/209/five+_years_of_running_and_fitness_part_one:_the_sleep_factor 2019-01-30T12:00:00Z Five+ Years of Running and Fitness, Part One: The Sleep Factor <p><em>I've been trying to write up my five-year summary for several months now, and the analysis seems to keep getting bigger faster than I can finish it. So in an attempt to break the impasse, I'm publishing this review in several parts rather than all at once. This is Part One of a series that will review of the experiences, challenges, insights, frustrations and successes of the past year.</em></p> <p>On July 27, 2013, I went for a run. A short, slow, shambling, on-and-off run punctuated by bouts of walking, to be sure - just 2.71 km at an average speed of 7.78 km/h - but a run nonetheless. It was the inauspicious start to a habit that has continued for more than five and a half years over 881 runs (as of this writing) spanning more than 10,200 kilometres and burning about a million calories.</p> <p>Since I started running, I lost 80 pounds (and then gained 15), took up weight-lifting, dramatically changed my diet and transformed my daily approach to physical activity. The reason I have been successful at making these changes is that I didn't try to do them all at once. Instead, I've made a long series of small, incremental changes that have added up over time.</p> <h3>New Fitness Tracker</h3> <p>From the beginning of my fitness journey, a central component has been the collection and tracking of key measurables. That started with <a href="/running">tracking runs</a> in mid-2013 and expanded to <a href="/stepcounts">daily stepcounts</a> after <a href="/blog/161/a_year_of_walking">I received a pedometer</a> in late 2014. </p> <p>Sadly, my pedometer - a free gift in the swag bag I received at a health conference - finally took that long walk into the sunset late last year. Happily, Santa was good to me and I received a Fitbit Charge 3 for Christmas - and the data has been a bonanza. </p> <p>In addition to tracking daily steps, the Fitbit also tracks my heart rate, automatically logs physical activities and even monitors my sleep stages.</p> <h3>Sleep Tracking</h3> <p>For the first time, I am able to quantify just how poorly I am sleeping - and it's alarming. The best evidence is that we should be getting seven to nine hours of sleep a night and that sleep deprivation, even minor, has a whole host of frightening health implications. To quote a <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5449130/">2017 paper</a> by Medic et al. published in <em>Nature and Science of Sleep</em>:</p> <blockquote> <p>Sleep disruption is associated with increased activity of the sympathetic nervous system and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, metabolic effects, changes in circadian rhythms, and proinflammatory responses. In otherwise healthy adults, short-term consequences of sleep disruption include increased stress responsivity, somatic pain, reduced quality of life, emotional distress and mood disorders, and cognitive, memory, and performance deficits. ... Long-term consequences of sleep disruption in otherwise healthy individuals include hypertension, dyslipidemia, cardiovascular disease, weight-related issues, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and colorectal cancer. All-cause mortality is also increased in men with sleep disturbances.</p> </blockquote> <p>Regular adequate sleep is one of the foundations of good health, along with a nutritious diet, regular physical activity and socioeconomic inclusion and stability. Insufficient sleep sabotages all of the benefits of the other determinants of health.</p> <p>How am I doing? Not great. </p> <p>Between December 26 and January 30, I have averaged just seven hours of sleep, which is at the very bottom edge of what is considered adequate. </p> <p>But seven hours is my <em>average</em>, which means I'm getting less than that around half the time. Of the 36 nights I've tracked so far, I have gotten more than seven hours on just 18 nights and less than seven the other 20. I have only gotten the recommended eight hours on four nights, or 11.11 percent of the total. </p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/chart_hours_of_sleep.png" alt="Chart: Hours of Sleep, 2019-12-26 - 2019-01-30" title="Chart: Hours of Sleep, 2019-12-26 - 2019-01-30"><br> Chart: Hours of Sleep, 2019-12-26 - 2019-01-30</p> <h3>Squeezed Three Ways</h3> <p>My good night's sleep is being squeezed in three ways:</p> <ul> <li><p>First of all, my workday starts as 6:00 AM, so I need to wake up around 4:45-5:00 AM. That's unpleasantly early, and after all these years I've never really gotten fully accustomed to it. </p></li> <li><p>Second, at the other end of the day, I'm going to bed too late - usually not until 8:30 or 9:00 PM or even later. This is challenging because I want to spend as much time as I can with my family and that shared time doesn't usually start until we sit down for dinner at around 6:00 PM. </p></li> <li><p>Finally, as my sleep tracker has demonstrated, I'm taking a long time to fall asleep and then waking up several times during the night. </p></li> </ul> <p>Here's a fairly representative snapshot that shows all three constraints: on January 18, 2019, I slept a total of seven hours and 12 minutes, once you subtract the 23 times I woke up during the night, for a total of an hour and three minutes.</p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/chart_sleep_cycles_2019_01_18.png" alt="Chart: Sleep Stages on January 18, 2019" title="Chart: Sleep Stages on January 18, 2019"><br> Chart: Sleep Stages on January 18, 2019</p> <p>I strongly suspect that my poor sleeping habits remain a significant drag on my health and a major suspect in the challenge I've had losing that last ten pounds and taking my fitness to the next level.</p> <p>So one of my major goals this year is to develop and maintain better sleep habits. I look forward to writing more about that in a subsequent post.</p> Ryan McGreal 2 http://quandyfactory.com/blog/206/ask_attorney_general_to_defend_rule_of_law 2018-10-13T12:00:00Z Ask Attorney General to Defend Rule of Law <p>Please consider <a href="mailto:caroline.mulroney@pc.ola.org">sending a letter to Caroline Mulroney</a>, Attorney General of Ontario, calling on her to defend the rule of law against the abuse of the premier. </p> <p>Here's the letter I just sent:</p> <hr /> <p>The Honourable Caroline Mulroney <br /> Attorney General <br /> Ministry of the Attorney General 720 Bay Street, 11th Floor <br /> Toronto, Ontario <br /> M7A 2S9</p> <p>Dear Minister:</p> <p>It is wholly inappropriate for Ontario Premier Doug Ford to invoke Section 33 of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms in order to ram through an unconstitutional ward redistricting in the midst of an ongoing municipal election campaign. </p> <p>Section 33 has never been invoked in Ontario's history, and this is an extraordinarily trifling and superficial pretext to wield the most severe and controversial tool our constitution allows. The fact that Premier Ford threatens to invoke S. 33 every time a judge overturns a piece of legislation that is found to be unconstitutional should alarm every Ontarian, and especially principled Progressive Conservatives.</p> <p>In addition, I urge you, as the Attorney General of Ontario, to defend vigorously the rule of law against political undermining. Premier Ford did your office a great insult and disservice when he falsely and slanderously accused the distinguished Superior Court Justice Edward Belobaba of putting partisanship ahead of his sworn duty to uphold the rights of Ontarians. </p> <p>You have a unique opportunity to do the right thing and defend the rule of law against this abuse. Please take the opportunity to distinguish yourself among the enablers of a Premier openly states his belief that his power should not be constrained by the fundamental legal rights of all Ontarians.</p> <p>Yours Very Truly,</p> <p>Ryan McGreal</p> Ryan McGreal 2 http://quandyfactory.com/blog/202/jordan_peterson_conspiracy_theory_generator 2018-06-15T12:00:00Z Jordan Peterson Conspiracy Theory Generator <p>Jordan Peterson is tedious. Like, really insufferably tedious. And yet his followers still somehow manage to make him seem reasonable by comparison. But stuff like this helps. Enjoy!</p> <script type="text/javascript"> var villains = [ 'Postmodern Neomarxists', 'Feminists (who secretly crave domination)', 'Leftist academics', 'Dangerous ideologues', 'Derrida and Foucault', 'Indoctrinated students', 'Social justice types', 'Radical trans activists', 'Politically correct PR departmnets', 'Actual Communists', 'The left', 'Millennials with a victimhood mentality' ]; var verb_phrases = [ 'are totally corrupting', 'have zero respect for', 'want to annihilate', 'assault the archetype of', 'don\'t bloody believe in', 'will quickly infect', 'unleash the Chaos Dragon of', 'dismiss and transgress', 'must be stopped from attacking', 'will make Gulags out of', 'feminize and weaken' ]; var favourite_things = [ 'the dominance hierarchy', 'the metaphorical substrate', 'Western values', 'the classical humanities', 'the individual', 'the Hero\'s journey', 'the fabric of Being', 'Solzhenitsyn\'s genius', 'Carl Jung\'s legacy', 'IQ testing\'s ability to determine achievement', 'the divine Logos', 'the inescapable tragedy and suffering of life', 'the humble lobster\'s quest' ]; var evil_weapons = [ 'murderous equity doctrine', 'dangerous egalitarian utopia', 'hatred of Objective Truth', 'compelled speech', 'group identity', 'Maoist pronouns', 'propaganda from "Frozen"', 'radical collectivism', 'lens of power for everything', 'disdain for Being', 'ideological bill C-16', 'low serotonin levels and poor posture', 'totalitarian ideology which I\'ve been studying for decades' ]; var ominous_conclusions = [ 'and we can\'t even have a conversation about it!', 'so just ask the Kulaks how that worked out.', 'and no one is talking about it!', 'as you can bloody well imagine!', 'just like Nietzsche prophesized.', 'so you should sign up for the Self Authoring site.', '[while still ignoring original question] so let me ask you this...', 'and you can be damn sure about that!' ]; function generate_sentence() { var sentence = villains[Math.floor(Math.random() * villains.length)] + ' ' + verb_phrases[Math.floor(Math.random() * verb_phrases.length)] + ' ' + favourite_things[Math.floor(Math.random() * favourite_things.length)] + ' ' + 'because of their ' + evil_weapons[Math.floor(Math.random() * evil_weapons.length)] + ', ' + ominous_conclusions[Math.floor(Math.random() * ominous_conclusions.length)]; document.getElementById('petersentence').innerText = sentence; return false; } </script> <p>Based on <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/enoughpetersonspam/comments/8k3ld9/jordan_peterson_conspiracy_theory_starterpack/">this starterpack</a>.</p> <div style="text-align: center; margin: 1em;"><button type="button" id="generate" onclick="generate_sentence()" style="padding: .8em 1em; colour: darkgreen; background: #BCFEB4; font-size: 140%; -webkit-border-radius: 3px; -moz-border-radius: 3px; border-radius: 3px;">Generate Conspiracy!</button></p> <div id="petersentence" style="font-family: garamond, times new roman, serif; font-size: 240%; line-height: 140%; border: 2px solid #900C3F; padding: 1em; margin: 1em; color: #900C3F; background: #F6FFC1; -webkit-border-radius: 3px; -moz-border-radius: 3px; border-radius: 3px;"></div> Ryan McGreal 2 http://quandyfactory.com/blog/201/unofficial_ontario_2018_election_riding-by-riding_summary_table 2018-06-08T12:00:00Z Unofficial Ontario 2018 Election Riding-By-Riding Summary Table <table> <caption>Riding-by-Riding Summary</caption> <tr> <th>Riding</th> <th>Liberal</th> <th>PC</th> <th>NDP</th> <th>Green</tdh> <th>Other</th> <th>1st</th> <th>2nd</th> <th>Margin</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Ajax</td> <td>25.80%</td> <td>39.05%</td> <td>30.97%</td> <td>2.51%</td> <td>1.68%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>8.08%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Algoma-Manitoulin</td> <td>8.27%</td> <td>24.58%</td> <td>58.25%</td> <td>3.60%</td> <td>5.29%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>33.67%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill</td> <td>21.60%</td> <td>56.03%</td> <td>18.04%</td> <td>2.66%</td> <td>1.68%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>34.44%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Barrie-Innisfil</td> <td>12.52%</td> <td>49.99%</td> <td>28.59%</td> <td>7.19%</td> <td>1.71%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>21.41%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte</td> <td>13.59%</td> <td>44.75%</td> <td>28.21%</td> <td>11.72%</td> <td>1.73%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>16.53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Bay of Quinte</td> <td>14.88%</td> <td>48.05%</td> <td>31.83%</td> <td>3.43%</td> <td>1.82%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>16.22%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Beaches-East York</td> <td>27.01%</td> <td>18.44%</td> <td>48.21%</td> <td>4.26%</td> <td>2.08%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>21.20%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Brampton Centre</td> <td>17.34%</td> <td>38.11%</td> <td>38.37%</td> <td>3.13%</td> <td>3.05%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>0.26%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Brampton East</td> <td>16.62%</td> <td>33.61%</td> <td>46.85%</td> <td>1.33%</td> <td>1.59%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>13.24%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Brampton North</td> <td>21.22%</td> <td>36.29%</td> <td>37.55%</td> <td>3.45%</td> <td>1.49%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>1.25%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Brampton South</td> <td>18.89%</td> <td>41.01%</td> <td>33.85%</td> <td>3.86%</td> <td>2.39%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>7.16%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Brampton West</td> <td>18.47%</td> <td>39.39%</td> <td>38.09%</td> <td>2.63%</td> <td>1.41%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>1.29%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Brantford-Brant</td> <td>9.49%</td> <td>42.02%</td> <td>40.93%</td> <td>4.72%</td> <td>2.84%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>1.08%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound</td> <td>12.30%</td> <td>54.67%</td> <td>24.06%</td> <td>5.95%</td> <td>3.02%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>30.60%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Burlington</td> <td>24.60%</td> <td>40.44%</td> <td>28.64%</td> <td>4.48%</td> <td>1.83%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>11.80%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Cambridge</td> <td>23.25%</td> <td>36.97%</td> <td>32.49%</td> <td>6.27%</td> <td>1.02%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>4.48%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Carleton</td> <td>19.44%</td> <td>51.33%</td> <td>22.50%</td> <td>3.95%</td> <td>2.78%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>28.83%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Chatham-Kent-Leamington</td> <td>8.06%</td> <td>51.92%</td> <td>35.72%</td> <td>3.53%</td> <td>0.77%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>16.20%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Davenport</td> <td>18.67%</td> <td>16.09%</td> <td>60.26%</td> <td>3.55%</td> <td>1.43%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>41.59%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Don Valley East</td> <td>35.94%</td> <td>33.10%</td> <td>27.42%</td> <td>2.53%</td> <td>1.01%</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>PC</td> <td>2.84%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Don Valley North</td> <td>30.93%</td> <td>44.44%</td> <td>20.91%</td> <td>2.52%</td> <td>1.20%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>13.50%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Don Valley West</td> <td>38.89%</td> <td>38.49%</td> <td>18.83%</td> <td>2.77%</td> <td>1.02%</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>PC</td> <td>0.40%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dufferin-Caledon</td> <td>12.46%</td> <td>53.08%</td> <td>20.34%</td> <td>12.53%</td> <td>1.60%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>32.74%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Durham</td> <td>16.84%</td> <td>46.99%</td> <td>31.66%</td> <td>3.88%</td> <td>0.63%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>15.33%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Eglinton-Lawrence</td> <td>38.67%</td> <td>40.15%</td> <td>18.12%</td> <td>2.43%</td> <td>0.63%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>1.49%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Elgin-Middlesex-London</td> <td>7.30%</td> <td>55.40%</td> <td>32.04%</td> <td>3.88%</td> <td>1.38%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>23.36%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Essex</td> <td>5.69%</td> <td>42.34%</td> <td>48.53%</td> <td>3.45%</td> <td>0.00%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>6.19%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Etobicoke Centre</td> <td>34.42%</td> <td>42.67%</td> <td>18.01%</td> <td>2.32%</td> <td>2.57%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>8.25%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Etobicoke North</td> <td>18.20%</td> <td>52.54%</td> <td>25.39%</td> <td>2.73%</td> <td>1.14%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>27.14%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Etobicoke-Lakeshore</td> <td>24.28%</td> <td>38.37%</td> <td>32.84%</td> <td>3.63%</td> <td>0.87%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>5.53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Flamborough-Glanbrook</td> <td>15.44%</td> <td>43.53%</td> <td>34.17%</td> <td>4.47%</td> <td>2.38%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>9.35%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Glengarry-Prescott-Russell</td> <td>31.68%</td> <td>40.96%</td> <td>21.78%</td> <td>2.93%</td> <td>2.66%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>9.28%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Guelph</td> <td>10.12%</td> <td>21.81%</td> <td>21.57%</td> <td>45.04%</td> <td>1.46%</td> <td>Green</td> <td>PC</td> <td>23.23%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Haldimand-Norfolk</td> <td>9.20%</td> <td>57.10%</td> <td>26.90%</td> <td>4.14%</td> <td>2.66%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>30.20%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock</td> <td>9.90%</td> <td>56.73%</td> <td>26.46%</td> <td>4.50%</td> <td>2.42%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>30.27%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hamilton Centre</td> <td>10.88%</td> <td>15.67%</td> <td>65.25%</td> <td>5.75%</td> <td>2.46%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>49.59%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hamilton East-Stoney Creek</td> <td>12.10%</td> <td>28.74%</td> <td>51.23%</td> <td>4.26%</td> <td>3.67%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>22.48%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hamilton Mountain</td> <td>9.24%</td> <td>28.83%</td> <td>54.58%</td> <td>5.14%</td> <td>2.20%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>25.75%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas</td> <td>19.79%</td> <td>31.03%</td> <td>43.18%</td> <td>4.16%</td> <td>1.84%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>12.15%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hastings-Lennox and Addington</td> <td>11.49%</td> <td>50.30%</td> <td>32.12%</td> <td>4.24%</td> <td>1.84%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>18.17%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Humber River-Black Creek</td> <td>27.93%</td> <td>30.28%</td> <td>37.41%</td> <td>1.57%</td> <td>2.81%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>7.13%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Huron-Bruce</td> <td>13.93%</td> <td>52.36%</td> <td>29.03%</td> <td>3.42%</td> <td>1.27%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>23.33%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kanata-Carleton</td> <td>17.19%</td> <td>43.57%</td> <td>28.61%</td> <td>5.33%</td> <td>5.30%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>14.96%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kenora-Rainy River</td> <td>10.57%</td> <td>48.38%</td> <td>37.45%</td> <td>3.60%</td> <td>0.00%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>10.93%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kiiwetinoong</td> <td>15.21%</td> <td>26.99%</td> <td>50.11%</td> <td>6.28%</td> <td>1.41%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>23.12%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>King-Vaughan</td> <td>23.34%</td> <td>56.62%</td> <td>15.39%</td> <td>3.41%</td> <td>1.24%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>33.28%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kingston and the Islands</td> <td>27.48%</td> <td>25.95%</td> <td>39.28%</td> <td>6.48%</td> <td>0.82%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>11.80%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kitchener Centre</td> <td>20.10%</td> <td>27.65%</td> <td>43.39%</td> <td>6.84%</td> <td>2.02%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>15.74%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kitchener South-Hespeler</td> <td>14.91%</td> <td>38.86%</td> <td>37.05%</td> <td>7.53%</td> <td>1.64%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>1.81%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kitchener-Conestoga</td> <td>14.06%</td> <td>39.63%</td> <td>38.03%</td> <td>6.51%</td> <td>1.78%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>1.60%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Lambton-Kent-Middlesex</td> <td>6.23%</td> <td>55.34%</td> <td>33.33%</td> <td>3.29%</td> <td>1.81%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>22.01%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston</td> <td>10.64%</td> <td>52.02%</td> <td>30.48%</td> <td>4.79%</td> <td>2.07%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>21.54%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes</td> <td>13.37%</td> <td>61.29%</td> <td>19.76%</td> <td>4.80%</td> <td>0.79%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>41.53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>London North Centre</td> <td>15.71%</td> <td>30.86%</td> <td>47.60%</td> <td>4.61%</td> <td>1.22%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>16.74%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>London West</td> <td>9.91%</td> <td>29.04%</td> <td>55.33%</td> <td>3.75%</td> <td>1.97%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>26.29%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>London-Fanshawe</td> <td>8.37%</td> <td>29.78%</td> <td>55.68%</td> <td>4.52%</td> <td>1.66%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>25.89%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Markham-Stouffville</td> <td>26.01%</td> <td>48.12%</td> <td>20.42%</td> <td>4.00%</td> <td>1.44%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>22.11%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Markham-Thornhill</td> <td>24.40%</td> <td>50.45%</td> <td>21.33%</td> <td>2.29%</td> <td>1.53%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>26.05%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Markham-Unionville</td> <td>18.01%</td> <td>62.44%</td> <td>16.57%</td> <td>2.12%</td> <td>0.86%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>44.42%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Milton</td> <td>29.82%</td> <td>41.65%</td> <td>22.23%</td> <td>5.04%</td> <td>1.26%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>11.82%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississauga Centre</td> <td>25.40%</td> <td>40.86%</td> <td>27.56%</td> <td>2.63%</td> <td>3.55%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>13.30%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississauga East-Cooksville</td> <td>30.23%</td> <td>41.15%</td> <td>22.74%</td> <td>3.45%</td> <td>2.42%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>10.93%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississauga-Erin Mills</td> <td>25.30%</td> <td>41.70%</td> <td>27.59%</td> <td>2.74%</td> <td>2.67%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>14.11%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississauga-Lakeshore</td> <td>35.01%</td> <td>42.31%</td> <td>18.34%</td> <td>2.95%</td> <td>1.39%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>7.30%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississauga-Malton</td> <td>20.78%</td> <td>39.14%</td> <td>32.85%</td> <td>1.79%</td> <td>5.43%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>6.28%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississauga-Streetsville</td> <td>25.74%</td> <td>43.53%</td> <td>25.84%</td> <td>2.81%</td> <td>2.08%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>17.69%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mushkegowuk-James Bay</td> <td>14.14%</td> <td>30.16%</td> <td>51.76%</td> <td>1.78%</td> <td>2.16%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>21.61%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nepean</td> <td>19.62%</td> <td>45.20%</td> <td>28.55%</td> <td>5.06%</td> <td>1.56%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>16.65%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Newmarket-Aurora</td> <td>23.00%</td> <td>47.34%</td> <td>23.88%</td> <td>3.63%</td> <td>2.14%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>23.46%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Niagara Centre</td> <td>11.79%</td> <td>37.53%</td> <td>44.25%</td> <td>3.69%</td> <td>2.74%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>6.72%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Niagara Falls</td> <td>9.35%</td> <td>35.58%</td> <td>50.79%</td> <td>3.46%</td> <td>0.81%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>15.22%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Niagara West</td> <td>10.68%</td> <td>52.74%</td> <td>29.75%</td> <td>5.58%</td> <td>1.25%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>22.98%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nickel Belt</td> <td>8.73%</td> <td>21.99%</td> <td>63.50%</td> <td>3.12%</td> <td>2.67%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>41.51%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nipissing</td> <td>7.93%</td> <td>49.93%</td> <td>36.87%</td> <td>2.83%</td> <td>2.44%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>13.06%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northumberland-Peterborough South</td> <td>24.17%</td> <td>45.33%</td> <td>24.50%</td> <td>4.52%</td> <td>1.47%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>20.83%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oakville</td> <td>35.76%</td> <td>43.72%</td> <td>16.49%</td> <td>3.51%</td> <td>0.52%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>7.95%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oakville North-Burlington</td> <td>24.40%</td> <td>46.40%</td> <td>24.38%</td> <td>3.69%</td> <td>1.12%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>22.01%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Orleans</td> <td>39.05%</td> <td>35.20%</td> <td>21.94%</td> <td>2.51%</td> <td>1.30%</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>PC</td> <td>3.85%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oshawa</td> <td>7.89%</td> <td>41.84%</td> <td>44.80%</td> <td>3.61%</td> <td>1.87%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>2.96%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ottawa Centre</td> <td>32.77%</td> <td>16.05%</td> <td>46.07%</td> <td>3.52%</td> <td>1.59%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>13.30%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ottawa South</td> <td>39.64%</td> <td>29.22%</td> <td>27.18%</td> <td>3.09%</td> <td>0.87%</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>PC</td> <td>10.42%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ottawa West-Nepean</td> <td>29.30%</td> <td>32.82%</td> <td>32.48%</td> <td>3.83%</td> <td>1.57%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>0.35%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ottawa-Vanier</td> <td>42.86%</td> <td>21.38%</td> <td>29.68%</td> <td>4.07%</td> <td>2.01%</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>13.19%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oxford</td> <td>6.92%</td> <td>55.74%</td> <td>30.43%</td> <td>4.30%</td> <td>2.62%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>25.30%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Parkdale-High Park</td> <td>16.98%</td> <td>18.01%</td> <td>59.42%</td> <td>4.66%</td> <td>0.93%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>41.41%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Parry Sound-Muskoka</td> <td>8.63%</td> <td>48.06%</td> <td>22.04%</td> <td>20.02%</td> <td>1.24%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>26.02%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Perth-Wellington</td> <td>10.81%</td> <td>50.67%</td> <td>30.71%</td> <td>5.86%</td> <td>1.95%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>19.96%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Peterborough-Kawartha</td> <td>24.57%</td> <td>37.50%</td> <td>33.92%</td> <td>3.36%</td> <td>0.65%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>3.59%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Pickering-Uxbridge</td> <td>20.40%</td> <td>42.20%</td> <td>32.01%</td> <td>3.96%</td> <td>1.43%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>10.19%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke</td> <td>9.75%</td> <td>69.19%</td> <td>16.73%</td> <td>2.98%</td> <td>1.34%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>52.46%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Richmond Hill</td> <td>27.92%</td> <td>51.24%</td> <td>17.27%</td> <td>2.88%</td> <td>0.69%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>23.32%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sarnia-Lambton</td> <td>4.38%</td> <td>52.76%</td> <td>37.40%</td> <td>3.65%</td> <td>1.81%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>15.36%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sault Ste. Marie</td> <td>9.96%</td> <td>42.03%</td> <td>40.74%</td> <td>3.25%</td> <td>4.02%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>1.29%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scarborough Centre</td> <td>22.21%</td> <td>38.42%</td> <td>33.33%</td> <td>2.31%</td> <td>3.73%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>5.09%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scarborough North</td> <td>22.44%</td> <td>50.17%</td> <td>24.83%</td> <td>1.62%</td> <td>0.95%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>25.34%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scarborough Southwest</td> <td>18.93%</td> <td>31.32%</td> <td>45.51%</td> <td>2.64%</td> <td>1.60%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>14.19%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scarborough-Agincourt</td> <td>28.32%</td> <td>50.37%</td> <td>17.44%</td> <td>1.72%</td> <td>2.14%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>22.05%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scarborough-Guildwood</td> <td>33.35%</td> <td>33.12%</td> <td>27.62%</td> <td>2.44%</td> <td>3.46%</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>PC</td> <td>0.23%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scarborough-Rouge Park</td> <td>20.91%</td> <td>38.61%</td> <td>36.32%</td> <td>2.41%</td> <td>1.74%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>2.29%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Simcoe North</td> <td>17.73%</td> <td>46.95%</td> <td>28.09%</td> <td>6.65%</td> <td>0.58%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>18.86%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Simcoe-Grey</td> <td>14.39%</td> <td>55.93%</td> <td>22.06%</td> <td>6.88%</td> <td>0.74%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>33.88%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Spadina-Fort York</td> <td>23.69%</td> <td>21.71%</td> <td>49.67%</td> <td>3.66%</td> <td>1.28%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>25.98%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>St. Catharines</td> <td>24.53%</td> <td>33.60%</td> <td>36.61%</td> <td>3.72%</td> <td>1.53%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>3.02%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry</td> <td>12.37%</td> <td>61.51%</td> <td>21.63%</td> <td>3.67%</td> <td>0.83%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>39.88%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sudbury</td> <td>22.43%</td> <td>23.20%</td> <td>48.09%</td> <td>4.16%</td> <td>2.12%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>24.88%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Thornhill</td> <td>14.78%</td> <td>61.13%</td> <td>19.33%</td> <td>2.21%</td> <td>2.56%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>41.80%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Thunder Bay-Atikokan</td> <td>36.01%</td> <td>23.22%</td> <td>36.26%</td> <td>2.71%</td> <td>1.80%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>0.25%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Thunder Bay-Superior North</td> <td>39.86%</td> <td>17.96%</td> <td>37.14%</td> <td>2.79%</td> <td>2.25%</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>2.73%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Timiskaming-Cochrane</td> <td>8.95%</td> <td>22.45%</td> <td>61.24%</td> <td>2.63%</td> <td>4.72%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>38.79%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Timmins</td> <td>8.81%</td> <td>29.64%</td> <td>57.43%</td> <td>1.75%</td> <td>2.37%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>27.79%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Toronto Centre</td> <td>27.15%</td> <td>14.12%</td> <td>53.66%</td> <td>3.12%</td> <td>1.94%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>26.51%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Toronto-Danforth</td> <td>14.07%</td> <td>15.86%</td> <td>64.25%</td> <td>4.38%</td> <td>1.44%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>48.39%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Toronto-St. Paul's</td> <td>33.39%</td> <td>26.30%</td> <td>35.96%</td> <td>3.23%</td> <td>1.13%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>2.57%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>University-Rosedale</td> <td>22.06%</td> <td>21.11%</td> <td>49.66%</td> <td>5.37%</td> <td>1.81%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>27.60%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vaughan-Woodbridge</td> <td>32.00%</td> <td>50.50%</td> <td>14.56%</td> <td>2.26%</td> <td>0.68%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>18.50%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Waterloo</td> <td>12.16%</td> <td>31.38%</td> <td>50.49%</td> <td>4.83%</td> <td>1.14%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>19.12%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wellington-Halton Hills</td> <td>12.78%</td> <td>54.00%</td> <td>24.03%</td> <td>8.64%</td> <td>0.55%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>29.97%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Whitby</td> <td>12.99%</td> <td>46.29%</td> <td>35.96%</td> <td>3.42%</td> <td>1.34%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>10.33%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Willowdale</td> <td>26.65%</td> <td>43.69%</td> <td>25.68%</td> <td>2.30%</td> <td>1.69%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>Liberal</td> <td>17.04%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Windsor West</td> <td>14.80%</td> <td>28.44%</td> <td>52.07%</td> <td>3.58%</td> <td>1.12%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>23.63%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Windsor-Tecumseh</td> <td>8.14%</td> <td>27.04%</td> <td>58.41%</td> <td>4.42%</td> <td>2.00%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>31.37%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>York Centre</td> <td>21.39%</td> <td>50.15%</td> <td>23.44%</td> <td>2.29%</td> <td>2.73%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>26.70%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>York South-Weston</td> <td>27.83%</td> <td>32.95%</td> <td>36.08%</td> <td>2.53%</td> <td>0.62%</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>PC</td> <td>3.13%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>York-Simcoe</td> <td>13.59%</td> <td>57.26%</td> <td>23.42%</td> <td>4.82%</td> <td>0.91%</td> <td>PC</td> <td>NDP</td> <td>33.84%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Ryan McGreal 2 http://quandyfactory.com/blog/200/ontario_election_2018:_winnable_ridings_via_strategic_voting 2018-06-05T12:00:00Z Ontario Election 2018: Winnable Ridings via Strategic Voting <p>I downloaded the latest dataset from <a href="http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/">tooclosetocall.ca</a> and added some flags to the rows to indicate which ridings are winnable through strategic voting.</p> <p>How to read this table:</p> <p>Each row is an Ontario riding. The four columns after the riding name are the riding-level support for each party. The next column, "NDP Lead", indicates whether the NDP is leading (1) or not (0). The "PC Lead" column indicates whether the PC Party is leading. the "NDP 2nd" column indicates whether the NDP is in second place. </p> <p>The last column, "Winnable", indicates either that the NDP is leading or that the combined NDP + Liberal + Green support is higher than the PC support.</p> <p>If you are considering voting strategically, look up your riding. If the PC Lead is 1 and the Winnable column is 1, this is a riding where strategic voting makes sense. Check which party is in second place and consider casting your vote for that party's candidate as the best option to defeat the PC candidate.</p> <p>Examples:</p> <p><strong>Bay of Quinte</strong>: the PC candidate is in the lead with 44.8% support. The NDP candidate has 32.6% and the Liberal candidate has 17.2%. Liberal- and Green-leaning voters in this riding who want to defeat the PC candidate should consider voting NDP.</p> <p><strong>Don Valley West</strong>: the PC candidate is in the lead with 40.3% support. The Liberal candidate has 32.6% and the NDP candidate has 23.4%. NDP- and Green-leaning voters in this riding who want to defeat the PC candidate should consider voting Liberal.</p> <p><em>Last Updated June 6, 2018.</em></p> <table> <caption>Winnable Ridings</caption> <tr> <th></th> <th></th> <th></th> <th></th> <th></th> <th>50</th> <th>68</th> <th>53</th> <th>110</th> </tr> <tr> <th>Riding</th> <th>OLP</th> <th>PC</th> <th>NDP</th> <th>Green</th> <th>NDP Lead</th> <th>PC Lead</th> <th>NDP 2nd</th> <th>Winnable</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Ajax</td> <td>30.3%</td> <td>36.3%</td> <td>30.2%</td> <td>3.2%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Algoma-Manitoulin</td> <td>10.3%</td> <td>23.0%</td> <td>63.5%</td> <td>3.3%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill</td> <td>26.0%</td> <td>45.7%</td> <td>24.6%</td> <td>3.7%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Barrie-Innisfil</td> <td>20.3%</td> <td>44.0%</td> <td>29.7%</td> <td>6.0%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte</td> <td>19.6%</td> <td>45.0%</td> <td>28.3%</td> <td>7.0%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Bay of Quinte</td> <td>20.0%</td> <td>44.4%</td> <td>30.3%</td> <td>5.3%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Beaches-East York</td> <td>21.6%</td> <td>20.3%</td> <td>52.4%</td> <td>5.6%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Brampton Centre</td> <td>20.4%</td> <td>32.2%</td> <td>41.3%</td> <td>6.1%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Brampton East</td> <td>14.9%</td> <td>19.6%</td> <td>63.4%</td> <td>2.1%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Brampton North</td> <td>21.6%</td> <td>31.1%</td> <td>43.7%</td> <td>3.6%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Riding</th> <th>OLP</th> <th>PC</th> <th>NDP</th> <th>Green</th> <th>NDP Lead</th> <th>PC Lead</th> <th>NDP 2nd</th> <th>Winnable</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Brampton South</td> <td>25.8%</td> <td>34.4%</td> <td>36.3%</td> <td>3.4%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Brampton West</td> <td>26.7%</td> <td>30.2%</td> <td>40.5%</td> <td>2.6%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Brantford-Brant</td> <td>16.5%</td> <td>38.5%</td> <td>40.7%</td> <td>4.3%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound</td> <td>9.8%</td> <td>52.6%</td> <td>28.7%</td> <td>8.8%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Burlington</td> <td>23.9%</td> <td>43.8%</td> <td>28.1%</td> <td>4.3%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Cambridge</td> <td>22.0%</td> <td>39.1%</td> <td>33.0%</td> <td>5.9%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Carleton</td> <td>16.0%</td> <td>54.3%</td> <td>23.8%</td> <td>5.9%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Chatham-Kent-Leamington</td> <td>4.8%</td> <td>42.0%</td> <td>47.8%</td> <td>5.4%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Davenport</td> <td>25.7%</td> <td>14.2%</td> <td>54.8%</td> <td>5.3%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Don Valley East</td> <td>35.6%</td> <td>32.7%</td> <td>28.0%</td> <td>3.8%</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Riding</th> <th>OLP</th> <th>PC</th> <th>NDP</th> <th>Green</th> <th>NDP Lead</th> <th>PC Lead</th> <th>NDP 2nd</th> <th>Winnable</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Don Valley North</td> <td>30.3%</td> <td>40.0%</td> <td>26.0%</td> <td>3.7%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Don Valley West</td> <td>33.3%</td> <td>40.4%</td> <td>22.7%</td> <td>3.5%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dufferin-Caledon</td> <td>15.0%</td> <td>44.2%</td> <td>24.6%</td> <td>16.2%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Durham</td> <td>16.4%</td> <td>39.1%</td> <td>40.4%</td> <td>4.1%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Eglinton-Lawrence</td> <td>32.0%</td> <td>41.6%</td> <td>23.0%</td> <td>3.4%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Elgin-Middlesex-London</td> <td>1.0%</td> <td>52.5%</td> <td>41.4%</td> <td>5.1%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Essex</td> <td>0.0%</td> <td>25.5%</td> <td>71.0%</td> <td>3.5%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Etobicoke Centre</td> <td>28.6%</td> <td>41.0%</td> <td>27.4%</td> <td>3.0%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Etobicoke-Lakeshore</td> <td>26.9%</td> <td>41.4%</td> <td>27.4%</td> <td>4.4%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Etobicoke North</td> <td>22.7%</td> <td>39.8%</td> <td>35.1%</td> <td>2.4%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Riding</th> <th>OLP</th> <th>PC</th> <th>NDP</th> <th>Green</th> <th>NDP Lead</th> <th>PC Lead</th> <th>NDP 2nd</th> <th>Winnable</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Flamborough-Glanbrook</td> <td>16.3%</td> <td>41.6%</td> <td>37.1%</td> <td>5.0%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Glengarry-Prescott-Russell</td> <td>32.3%</td> <td>37.9%</td> <td>26.2%</td> <td>3.6%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Guelph</td> <td>10.1%</td> <td>28.5%</td> <td>29.3%</td> <td>32.0%</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Haldimand-Norfolk</td> <td>5.4%</td> <td>56.4%</td> <td>33.1%</td> <td>5.0%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock</td> <td>18.0%</td> <td>45.2%</td> <td>32.4%</td> <td>4.4%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hamilton Centre</td> <td>4.5%</td> <td>16.8%</td> <td>69.2%</td> <td>9.5%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hamilton East-Stoney Creek</td> <td>12.6%</td> <td>22.4%</td> <td>60.8%</td> <td>4.2%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hamilton Mountain</td> <td>10.7%</td> <td>21.7%</td> <td>63.1%</td> <td>4.5%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas</td> <td>23.7%</td> <td>31.5%</td> <td>39.4%</td> <td>5.4%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hastings-Lennox and Addington</td> <td>12.7%</td> <td>45.3%</td> <td>35.9%</td> <td>6.1%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Riding</th> <th>OLP</th> <th>PC</th> <th>NDP</th> <th>Green</th> <th>NDP Lead</th> <th>PC Lead</th> <th>NDP 2nd</th> <th>Winnable</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Humber River-Black Creek</td> <td>23.0%</td> <td>19.7%</td> <td>55.5%</td> <td>1.8%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Huron-Bruce</td> <td>12.2%</td> <td>45.2%</td> <td>38.8%</td> <td>3.7%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kanata-Carleton</td> <td>21.0%</td> <td>46.7%</td> <td>25.2%</td> <td>7.2%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kenora-Rainy River</td> <td>8.6%</td> <td>38.6%</td> <td>49.7%</td> <td>3.1%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kiiwetinoong</td> <td>4.3%</td> <td>17.3%</td> <td>74.5%</td> <td>3.8%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kingston and the Islands</td> <td>21.8%</td> <td>26.9%</td> <td>43.4%</td> <td>7.9%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>King-Vaughan</td> <td>30.2%</td> <td>40.5%</td> <td>26.1%</td> <td>3.3%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kitchener Centre</td> <td>23.3%</td> <td>32.0%</td> <td>38.1%</td> <td>6.7%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kitchener-Conestoga</td> <td>20.1%</td> <td>41.7%</td> <td>31.5%</td> <td>6.6%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kitchener South-Hespeler</td> <td>20.1%</td> <td>38.8%</td> <td>34.5%</td> <td>6.6%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Riding</th> <th>OLP</th> <th>PC</th> <th>NDP</th> <th>Green</th> <th>NDP Lead</th> <th>PC Lead</th> <th>NDP 2nd</th> <th>Winnable</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Lambton-Kent-Middlesex</td> <td>1.2%</td> <td>51.6%</td> <td>42.4%</td> <td>4.9%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston</td> <td>9.2%</td> <td>52.4%</td> <td>31.1%</td> <td>7.3%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Leeds-Grenville-1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes</td> <td>3.3%</td> <td>61.4%</td> <td>30.1%</td> <td>5.2%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>London-Fanshawe</td> <td>1.2%</td> <td>28.4%</td> <td>66.1%</td> <td>4.3%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>London North Centre</td> <td>10.1%</td> <td>35.6%</td> <td>48.6%</td> <td>5.6%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>London West</td> <td>4.6%</td> <td>35.2%</td> <td>55.9%</td> <td>4.2%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Markham-Stouffville</td> <td>28.0%</td> <td>41.9%</td> <td>26.2%</td> <td>3.9%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Markham-Thornhill</td> <td>30.0%</td> <td>42.9%</td> <td>24.5%</td> <td>2.6%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Markham-Unionville</td> <td>21.1%</td> <td>49.5%</td> <td>25.3%</td> <td>4.0%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Milton</td> <td>23.7%</td> <td>44.5%</td> <td>28.1%</td> <td>3.8%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Riding</th> <th>OLP</th> <th>PC</th> <th>NDP</th> <th>Green</th> <th>NDP Lead</th> <th>PC Lead</th> <th>NDP 2nd</th> <th>Winnable</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississauga Centre</td> <td>30.7%</td> <td>34.8%</td> <td>31.2%</td> <td>3.3%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississauga East-Cooksville</td> <td>29.6%</td> <td>36.5%</td> <td>29.9%</td> <td>4.0%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississauga-Erin Mills</td> <td>29.0%</td> <td>38.1%</td> <td>30.2%</td> <td>2.6%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississauga-Lakeshore</td> <td>29.3%</td> <td>41.7%</td> <td>25.6%</td> <td>3.5%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississauga-Malton</td> <td>29.9%</td> <td>32.5%</td> <td>34.4%</td> <td>3.1%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississauga-Streetsville</td> <td>29.9%</td> <td>37.5%</td> <td>28.3%</td> <td>4.2%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mushkegowuk-James Bay</td> <td>16.0%</td> <td>13.1%</td> <td>69.5%</td> <td>1.5%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nepean</td> <td>23.4%</td> <td>45.5%</td> <td>25.4%</td> <td>5.7%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Newmarket-Aurora</td> <td>25.1%</td> <td>44.5%</td> <td>26.0%</td> <td>4.3%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Niagara Centre</td> <td>2.9%</td> <td>30.7%</td> <td>62.1%</td> <td>4.2%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Riding</th> <th>OLP</th> <th>PC</th> <th>NDP</th> <th>Green</th> <th>NDP Lead</th> <th>PC Lead</th> <th>NDP 2nd</th> <th>Winnable</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Niagara Falls</td> <td>0.0%</td> <td>36.2%</td> <td>60.3%</td> <td>3.5%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Niagara West</td> <td>7.7%</td> <td>52.8%</td> <td>33.4%</td> <td>6.1%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nickel Belt</td> <td>7.5%</td> <td>17.2%</td> <td>71.6%</td> <td>3.7%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nipissing</td> <td>9.7%</td> <td>47.8%</td> <td>38.4%</td> <td>4.0%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northumberland-Peterborough South</td> <td>21.7%</td> <td>42.2%</td> <td>31.6%</td> <td>4.5%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oakville</td> <td>28.1%</td> <td>45.3%</td> <td>22.7%</td> <td>4.0%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oakville North-Burlington</td> <td>26.0%</td> <td>44.3%</td> <td>26.1%</td> <td>3.6%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Orleans</td> <td>34.5%</td> <td>38.7%</td> <td>22.8%</td> <td>4.0%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oshawa</td> <td>4.1%</td> <td>36.2%</td> <td>55.8%</td> <td>3.9%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ottawa Centre</td> <td>34.3%</td> <td>22.8%</td> <td>34.2%</td> <td>8.7%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Riding</th> <th>OLP</th> <th>PC</th> <th>NDP</th> <th>Green</th> <th>NDP Lead</th> <th>PC Lead</th> <th>NDP 2nd</th> <th>Winnable</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Ottawa South</td> <td>32.2%</td> <td>37.2%</td> <td>25.8%</td> <td>4.8%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ottawa-Vanier</td> <td>38.2%</td> <td>27.3%</td> <td>28.7%</td> <td>5.8%</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ottawa West-Nepean</td> <td>28.1%</td> <td>38.1%</td> <td>27.1%</td> <td>6.6%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oxford</td> <td>7.2%</td> <td>51.6%</td> <td>36.1%</td> <td>5.1%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Parkdale-High Park</td> <td>22.2%</td> <td>18.6%</td> <td>53.8%</td> <td>5.5%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Parry Sound-Muskoka</td> <td>9.0%</td> <td>45.6%</td> <td>26.0%</td> <td>19.4%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Perth-Wellington</td> <td>19.3%</td> <td>45.0%</td> <td>30.5%</td> <td>5.2%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Peterborough-Kawartha</td> <td>25.0%</td> <td>38.2%</td> <td>32.1%</td> <td>4.6%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Pickering-Uxbridge</td> <td>26.9%</td> <td>40.0%</td> <td>28.5%</td> <td>4.5%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke</td> <td>3.3%</td> <td>66.0%</td> <td>27.2%</td> <td>3.5%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Riding</th> <th>OLP</th> <th>PC</th> <th>NDP</th> <th>Green</th> <th>NDP Lead</th> <th>PC Lead</th> <th>NDP 2nd</th> <th>Winnable</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Richmond Hill</td> <td>27.7%</td> <td>43.4%</td> <td>25.4%</td> <td>3.5%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sarnia-Lambton</td> <td>0.0%</td> <td>45.3%</td> <td>50.0%</td> <td>4.7%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sault Ste. Marie</td> <td>24.4%</td> <td>36.2%</td> <td>36.7%</td> <td>2.6%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scarborough-Agincourt</td> <td>28.4%</td> <td>42.0%</td> <td>26.8%</td> <td>2.9%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scarborough Centre</td> <td>29.0%</td> <td>30.4%</td> <td>37.1%</td> <td>3.4%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scarborough-Guildwood</td> <td>29.2%</td> <td>35.7%</td> <td>32.0%</td> <td>3.1%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scarborough North</td> <td>21.5%</td> <td>37.5%</td> <td>39.2%</td> <td>1.8%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scarborough-Rouge Park</td> <td>27.4%</td> <td>31.9%</td> <td>38.2%</td> <td>2.5%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scarborough Southwest</td> <td>28.9%</td> <td>28.4%</td> <td>38.2%</td> <td>4.4%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Simcoe-Grey</td> <td>13.0%</td> <td>51.9%</td> <td>27.1%</td> <td>8.0%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Riding</th> <th>OLP</th> <th>PC</th> <th>NDP</th> <th>Green</th> <th>NDP Lead</th> <th>PC Lead</th> <th>NDP 2nd</th> <th>Winnable</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Simcoe North</td> <td>17.2%</td> <td>43.4%</td> <td>31.2%</td> <td>8.2%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Spadina-Fort York</td> <td>27.9%</td> <td>24.8%</td> <td>41.5%</td> <td>5.8%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>St. Catharines</td> <td>22.1%</td> <td>35.0%</td> <td>38.7%</td> <td>4.2%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry</td> <td>4.3%</td> <td>58.5%</td> <td>34.3%</td> <td>3.0%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sudbury</td> <td>24.1%</td> <td>25.1%</td> <td>46.9%</td> <td>3.8%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Thornhill</td> <td>25.5%</td> <td>50.3%</td> <td>21.7%</td> <td>2.5%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Thunder Bay-Atikokan</td> <td>34.5%</td> <td>21.0%</td> <td>40.5%</td> <td>4.0%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Thunder Bay-Superior North</td> <td>37.7%</td> <td>14.7%</td> <td>43.3%</td> <td>4.3%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Timiskaming-Cochrane</td> <td>9.0%</td> <td>22.9%</td> <td>66.0%</td> <td>2.0%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Timmins</td> <td>6.1%</td> <td>36.7%</td> <td>55.1%</td> <td>2.1%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Riding</th> <th>OLP</th> <th>PC</th> <th>NDP</th> <th>Green</th> <th>NDP Lead</th> <th>PC Lead</th> <th>NDP 2nd</th> <th>Winnable</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Toronto Centre</td> <td>37.9%</td> <td>20.4%</td> <td>36.3%</td> <td>5.4%</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Toronto-Danforth</td> <td>20.8%</td> <td>15.9%</td> <td>57.8%</td> <td>5.5%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Toronto-St. Paul's</td> <td>35.7%</td> <td>32.2%</td> <td>26.4%</td> <td>5.7%</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>University-Rosedale</td> <td>27.7%</td> <td>25.8%</td> <td>38.9%</td> <td>7.6%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vaughan-Woodbridge</td> <td>35.5%</td> <td>35.9%</td> <td>26.1%</td> <td>2.5%</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Waterloo</td> <td>15.5%</td> <td>32.2%</td> <td>47.2%</td> <td>5.1%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wellington-Halton Hills</td> <td>15.1%</td> <td>51.7%</td> <td>25.6%</td> <td>7.6%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Whitby</td> <td>17.2%</td> <td>45.9%</td> <td>32.5%</td> <td>4.4%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Willowdale</td> <td>30.4%</td> <td>39.3%</td> <td>26.1%</td> <td>4.2%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Windsor-Tecumseh</td> <td>0.0%</td> <td>19.7%</td> <td>74.6%</td> <td>5.6%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Riding</th> <th>OLP</th> <th>PC</th> <th>NDP</th> <th>Green</th> <th>NDP Lead</th> <th>PC Lead</th> <th>NDP 2nd</th> <th>Winnable</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Windsor West</td> <td>19.4%</td> <td>20.0%</td> <td>57.3%</td> <td>3.4%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>York Centre</td> <td>23.9%</td> <td>40.0%</td> <td>32.6%</td> <td>3.5%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>York South-Weston</td> <td>27.3%</td> <td>18.1%</td> <td>52.0%</td> <td>2.7%</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>York-Simcoe</td> <td>20.5%</td> <td>40.2%</td> <td>32.8%</td> <td>6.5%</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Ryan McGreal 2 http://quandyfactory.com/blog/185/a_fourth_year_of_running:_the_victory_lap_that_wasnt 2017-11-06T12:00:00Z A Fourth Year of Running: The Victory Lap that Wasn't <h3>Reaching a Milestone</h3> <blockquote> <p>Arriving at one goal is the starting point to another. <br /> -- John Dewey</p> </blockquote> <p>Except when it's not.</p> <p>I began my fourth year of running feeling self-congratulatory (never a good sign). I had gone through <a href="/blog/170/a_third_year_of_running_plus_various_other_experiments">an entire year without any debilitating injuries</a>, and it felt like I finally understood my body well enough to train effectively within its operational tolerances. I was going from strength to strength and had embarked on an ambitious four-month training schedule to complete <a href="/blog/183/my_first_marathon_or_a_supposedly_fun_thing_i_wont_do_again_until_ive_had_time_to_forget_how_gruelling_it_was">my first full marathon</a>. I even managed to course-correct and ride out an incipient overtraining rut, but that turned out to be a warning sign of things to come.</p> <p>I've already written about <a href="/blog/183/my_first_marathon_or_a_supposedly_fun_thing_i_wont_do_again_until_ive_had_time_to_forget_how_gruelling_it_was">running my first marathon</a> and won't rehash the entire experience here, but I've been struggling to make sense of its aftermath in the year since then.</p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/road2hope_2016_red_hill_valley_parkway.jpg" alt="Running down the Red Hill Valley Parkway" title="Running down the Red Hill Valley Parkway"><br> Running down the Red Hill Valley Parkway</p> <p>Running a marathon is easily the most difficult challenge - physically and mentally - I have ever undertaken, and while I managed to complete it in a respectable time (4:00:50 chip time), the more I think about it the more Pyrrhic that victory feels. </p> <p>From the first time I shuffled out of the house on July 27, 2013 to shamble through a slow, clumsy 2.71 kilometre walk-run, I've always been able to keep my focus on the next goal. That next goal has always been achievable with time and effort: running continuously without a walk break, running five full kilometres, running six kilometres, running eight kilometres, running ten kilometres, averaging six minutes per kilometre (ten kilometres per hour), and so on an so on, all the way up to a marathon. </p> <p>But training for the marathon required so much training that running started to feel like a grind instead of a joy. The marathon itself was unbelievably gruelling. I managed to get through it but just barely. When it was done I could scarcely imagine running another marathon, let alone taking on something even longer. </p> <p>This was a new feeling for me. Each previous milestone had left me excited to turn my sights to the next one. It was after finishing the 2016 Around the Bay race, for example, that I solidified my commitment to tackle a marathon next. I finished the marathon, but it felt more like the marathon finished me!</p> <h3>Unexpected Ennui</h3> <blockquote> <p>Ce sont justement cette repugnance, cet ennui qu'il convient de developper en nous, afin de nous demarquer de l'espece.<br> -- Michel Houellebecq</p> </blockquote> <p>I gradually recovered physically in the weeks that followed the marathon and resumed my usual baseline regimen, but I was caught in the grip of a kind of running ennui that sapped my enthusiasm. </p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/chedoke_radial_trail_highway_403_overpass_2017_06.jpg" alt="Running across the Chedoke Rail Trail Highway 403 overpass" title="Running across the Chedoke Rail Trail Highway 403 overpass"><br> Running across the Chedoke Rail Trail Highway 403 overpass</p> <p>I was able to maintain my weekday runs, but on the weekends I increasingly found myself succumbing to a myriad of excuses to blow off my long run. The excuses had not gotten any better, I had merely become more susceptible to them.</p> <p>As every distance runner knows, the long run is the foundation of endurance and fitness. It builds up cardiovascular and aerobic capacity, increases cellular mitochondria, trains muscles to burn fat for fuel, and bolsters psychological toughness. It is the essential base on which your entire running program rests.</p> <p>Traditionally, the long run had been one of the physical, emotional and philosophical highlights of my entire week - a glorious extended mindfulness meditation that placed me squarely in the universe and left me feeling euphoric. And yet as often as not, I found myself unable to drag my ass out of bed to do it.</p> <p>It was as if, having at last become free of exogenous challenges, I was finally turning against myself. Or to frame it differently, without an external goal I no longer knew what to run for. (Such is the depth of my funk that this annual review is already three months late.)</p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/tiffany_falls_wilson_street_ancaster_2017_06.jpg" alt="Tiffany Falls" title="Tiffany Falls"><br> Tiffany Falls</p> <p>After a winter of half-assing my long runs, I ran the 30 kilometre Around the Bay Road Race on March 26, 2017 and managed to shave <a href="https://www.sportstats.ca/display-results.xhtml?raceid=42134&bib=4296">two and a half minutes</a> off my <a href="https://www.sportstats.ca/display-results.xhtml?raceid=29119&bib=228">finishing time</a> from the previous year - but it was obvious to me that I was freeloading on my residual aerobic base instead of maintaining or building on it.</p> <table> <caption>Around the Bay 2016/2017 Results</caption> <tr> <th></th> <th>2016</th> <th>2017</tdh> </tr> <tr> <th>Bib</th> <td>228</td> <td>4296</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Guntime</th> <td>2:54:45</td> <td>2:53:30</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Chiptime</th> <td>2:52:32</td> <td>2:50:03</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Overall Place</th> <td>2254/5259</td> <td>1836/4244</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Overall Percentile</th> <td>43%</td> <td>43%</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Gender Place (M)</th> <td>1509/2669</td> <td>1247/2224</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Gender Percentile</th> <td>57%</td> <td>56%</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Age Place (M40-44)</th> <td>267/443</td> <td>201/327</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Age Percentile</th> <td>60%</td> <td>61%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>Aside from Around the Bay, I suddenly had no motivation to sign up for races. I missed both the Unity Run and the Sulphur Springs Trail Race (it was already sold out when I went to sign up for it). After a summer of futzing around, I was at the point where I wasn't even sure I'd be able to complete the Road2Hope half marathon on Sunday, November 6, 2017.</p> <p>I have not yet figured out how I am going to work through this malaise. Perhaps it will involve setting new goals, or reframing my expectations. Maybe I need to focus on improving my general fitness to the point where I can run a marathon without feeling destroyed at the end. I have to say that just writing this down has helped to improve my mood.</p> <h3>Road2Hope Half Marathon</h3> <p>As it turns out, I had a really strong race in the Road2Hope half marathon. It was one of those races where everything goes well, I had lots of energy, my form felt good and The clocks went back on Saturday night so I got an extra hour of sleep, and I woke up feeling good. I followed my usual race-day legal performance-enhancing regimen: whole grain toast with nut and seed butter for breakfast, a prophylactic ibuprofen and a big mug of coffee.</p> <p>The temperature was mild but rainy, and the half-marathon began with blatting cold rain coming in sideways. It's always a crapshoot trying to figure out what to wear, and I ended up heading out in shorts and a long-sleeve shirt without a windbreaker. It was unpleasant for the first several minutes but once I warmed up it felt fine. By the time I reached around six or seven kilometres in, I had already rolled up my sleeves.</p> <p>The Road2Hope half marathon feels a bit like cheating, especially after last year: it has all of the highlights of the full marathon, including an exhilarating run down the Red Hill Valley Parkway and that delicious bowl of vegetable soup at the end, but over a total distance that you can still pull off after a half-assed training regimen.</p> <p>Once the starting line logjam cleared and we started to spread out, I settled into a fast pace that I assumed I probably would not be able to maintain for the full distance. I made up some additional time on the Red Hill, gambling that I wouldn't be too gassed for the shorter final stretch along the Waterfront Trail. Surprisingly, I didn't run out of energy and was able to sustain the pace right through the end.</p> <table> <caption>Road2Hope 2017 Results</caption> <tr> <th>Bib</th> <td>784</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Guntime</th> <td>1:54:20</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Chiptime</th> <td>1:53:20</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Overall Place</th> <td>496/1326</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Overall Percentile</th> <td>37%</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Gender Place (M)</th> <td>323/613</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Gender Percentile</th> <td>53%</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Age Place (M40-44)</th> <td>48/82</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Age Percentile</th> <td>59%</td> </tr> </table> <p>I <a href="http://chiptimeresults.com/chiptimepublic/do.php?Ni3+5YQ0KqH8VLWEocRaPbJBeU57khuGgVg4naJXBF8qlunIbuJ710PHJtr+hJtXhjH33vZC1dgb7DBt3LuuUhoqmuW2ovrLKz9J2ah5gds=">completed the race</a> with a guntime (from when the gun goes off until I crossed the finish line) of 1:54:20 and a chiptime (from when I crossed the starting line until I crossed the finish line) of 1:53:20. I came in 496th place out of 1,326 total finishers, and in 323rd place out of 613 male finishers. I was in 48th place among 82 males age 40-44. According to Runkeeper, I had an average speed of 11.21 km/h or 5:21 minutes/km.</p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/road2hope_2017_half_marathon_route_map_runkeeper.jpg" alt="Road2Hope 2017 Half-Marathon route map from Runkeeper" title="Road2Hope 2017 Half-Marathon route map from Runkeeper"><br> Road2Hope 2017 Half-Marathon route map from Runkeeper</p> <p>Of course, it puts things into perspective to finish a half-marathon at your personal best pace, only to have the first-place runner in the *full* marathon finish soon after you. Toronto's Bonsa Gonfa, following a police motorcycle escort through the assorted half-marathoners, finished his 42.195 kilometres in a very impressive 2:23:33. <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/road2hope_2017_marathon_first_place_finisher_bonsa_gonfa.jpg" alt="Road2Hope 2017 Marathon first place finisher Bonsa Gonfa just before the finish line" title="Road2Hope 2017 Marathon first place finisher Bonsa Gonfa just before the finish line"><br> Road2Hope 2017 Marathon first place finisher Bonsa Gonfa just before the finish line</p> <h3>Some More Good News</h3> <blockquote> <p>The bad news is nothing lasts forever.<br> The good news is nothing lasts forever.<br> -- J. Cole</p> </blockquote> <p>So my running situation is not all doom and gloom. When I do manage to eke out a long run, they're in the 18-20 kilometre range, and I'm still maintaining 30-40 kilometres in distance a week, even on weeks when I 'miss' my long run. </p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/i_wouldnt_say_ive_been_missing_it_bob.jpg" alt="" title=""><br></p> <p>I've also managed to maintain what feels like a good, sustainable running form, even though I'd like to increase my cadence from 170 steps per minute toward 180 steps per minute. I definitely need to get back in the game, but at least I'm not starting from scratch.</p> <p>In addition, this past June I finally took got my act together and committed to joining the <a href="https://mcmasterinnovationpark.ca/fitness-facility">McMaster Innovation Park Fitness Facility</a> to incorporate regular weight lifting into my routine. Notwithstanding illness, I go three times a week and follow a program tailored for runners that was helpfully provided by Maureen, the MIP gym's amazing fitness coordinator.</p> <p>I've long put off joining a gym because I wasn't sure how to fit it into my schedule and I always assumed I would hate everything about it, but my experience has been <em>way</em> better than I expected. The facility is well-appointed and not too busy, the 'culture' is respectful and accepting without any hardbody showoffs, and the weight lifting itself is a lot more rewarding than I thought it would be. There's something pretty awesome about the visceral feeling of growing physically stronger over time.</p> <p>Perhaps most important, I've gone another year and then some without any debilitating injuries. I think I've finally figured out a theory of fitness and injury prevention that works for me. Which is to say, I haven't come up with a new theory, I've just finally gotten my head around how to apply this common sense to my own training.</p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/footprints_in_fresh_snow_2017_01_10.jpg" alt="Footsteps in the snow" title="Footsteps in the snow"><br> Footsteps in the snow</p> <h3>A Theory of Fitness</h3> <blockquote> <p>What does not kill us makes us stronger. <br /> - Friedrich Nietzsche</p> </blockquote> <p>Of course, Nietzsche's famous ode to hormesis is not quite correct. Some things that don't kill us nevertheless manage to make us weaker and more prone to further infirmity. I've learned that mapping the distinction between those trials that strengthen us and those trials that weaken us is at the heart of successful endurance running.</p> <p>We might turn to Nassim Nicholas Taleb to help us think more clearly about the matter. In 2012, Taleb published a brilliant and often unbearably smug masterpiece of trolling-as-high-art called <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile"><em>Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder</em></a>. (Reading it, my reaction was split almost evenly between rank admiration and a burning desire to hurl the book across the room.)</p> <p>Taleb's genius is in recognizing that the traditional conceptual dichotomy of <em>resilience</em> vs. <em>fragility</em> is actually a truncated view of a broader spectrum. </p> <p>We say something is <em>resilient</em> or <em>robust</em> if it can withstand stress, and <em>fragile</em> or <em>brittle</em> if it cannot withstand stress. Taleb articulated another quality: we can say something is <em>antifragile</em> if it not only withstands stress but also becomes <em>stronger</em> from it.</p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/bruce_trail_switchback_2017_06.jpg" alt="Running up the Bruce Trail switchback between Filman Road and Wilson Street" title="Running up the Bruce Trail switchback between Filman Road and Wilson Street"><br> Running up the Bruce Trail switchback between Filman Road and Wilson Street</p> <p>The concept of antifragility can help us think more clearly about exercise, stress and fitness. Physical exercise, after all, is a stressor, and a body exercising is a body being subjected to acute stress. </p> <p>The intersection between the state of a body and the intensity of the stress will determine whether the experience is one of fragility, resilience or antifragility.</p> <ul> <li><p>Without physical exercise, the human body gradually becomes <em>fragile</em>. Muscles atrophy, bones weaken, aerobic capacity declines, and the body's capacity to withstand any kind of stress (including emotional) deteriorates. </p> </li> <li><p>A body subjected to a baseline level of exercise to maintains current fitness is experiencing <em>resilience</em>. It can withstand moderate stress and disorder, but does not become stronger as a result of the exercise.</p> </li> <li><p>A body subjected to more vigorous exercise that is intense enough to increase fitness is experiencing <em>antifragiity</em>. A sustained program of progressively more demanding physical exercise that pushes the body slightly beyond its baseline level of performance, followed by adequate rest and recovery, produces chronic adaptations that render the body progressively stronger. These adaptations to a steadily increasing exercise workload are cumulative: your baseline fitness level steps up with each cycle of exercise-and-recovery.</p> </li> <li><p>However, a body subjected to overtraining, i.e. pushing too fast and/or too far without adequate recovery time, once again experiences <em>fragilty</em>. When you exercise, your body tissues undergo damage - torn muscle fibres, microscopic bone fractures, and so on. This is why recovery time is essential: during this time, your body repairs the damage and leaves your muscles and bones slightly thicker and stronger than before. </p> </li> </ul> <p>If you exercise repeatedly without giving your body time to recover, you start accumulating damage. Progressive adaptation stalls, fitness starts to decline, and the risk of injury goes up. Tiny muscle tears can coalesce into a major tear; or microscopic bone damages can coalesce into a stress fracture. </p> <p>Likewise, if you exercise at an intensity that is far higher than that to which your body is accustomed, you may overstress it and cause an injury.</p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/chart_exercise_intensity.png" alt="Chart: spectrum of exercise intensity and body response" title="Chart: spectrum of exercise intensity and body response"><br> Chart: spectrum of exercise intensity and body response</p> <h3>Breaking the Injury Cycle</h3> <blockquote> <p>The more injuries you get, the smarter you get.<br> -- Mikhail Baryshnikov</p> </blockquote> <p>It was by applying this principle over the past two years - intuitively at first and more formally as the concept has become more clear - that I have managed to break out of the overuse-injury-every-few-months cycle I was in during my first two years of running. </p> <p>This was particularly vital during my marathon training, when I pushed my total weekly running distance into previously uncharted territory. At one point I found myself getting into an incipient overtraining rut where I was feeling constant fatigue, started craving junky carbs and could feel my right knee starting to twinge. </p> <p>I managed to recognize what was going on before it was too late. I immediately backed away from the overtraining threshold, reduced my intensity and focused on cleaning up my form. Once I was back ahead of the curve, I was able to resume my incremental trajectory instead of spiralling into a hole or straight-up injuring something.</p> <p>Indeed, my right knee has somewhat taken on the role of the canary in my body's coal mine. Before I started running, it used to click loudly and sometimes painfully on stairs. After I started running, it quickly stopped bothering me and would only twinge when my shoes would wear out, around 800 kilometres total distance.</p> <p>It started to bug me a bit more persistently during my marathon training, and it has never entirely gone away in the year since then. I've noticed that it twinges in certain specific circumstances: when I'm going too fast, when I have sloppy form, when my cadence gets too low (significantly lower than 170 steps per minute), when I get tired at the end of a long run, and of course when my shoes are worn out.</p> <p>I've tried to focus on strengthening my knees as part of my workouts at the gym, incorporating squats and lunges to build muscle strength so there is less stress on the bones, tendons, ligaments, fascia and other connective tissues. That seems to be helping, and my knee rarely causes problems - but I'm conscious that it's there, waiting quietly to fail if I let my guard down.</p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/ravine_road_trail_2017_06.jpg" alt="Running on the Ravine Road Trail" title="Running on the Ravine Road Trail"><br> Running on the Ravine Road Trail</p> <h3>Summary</h3> <p class="initial">All in all, the past year can most charitably be considered a maintenance year in my running career. After the high water mark of last November's marathon, I have mostly coasted for the rest of the year, leading to a year-end summary in which my overall distance was down slightly from my third year while my average speed was modestly higher. </p> <p>That said, my annualized distance is down significantly for the first three months of my fifth year, while my average speed is holding steady.</p> <table> <caption>Year-Over-Year Running Summary (Each Year Starting on July 27)</caption> <thead> <tr> <th>Year </th> <th>Distance (km)</th> <th>Calories </th> <th>Speed (km/h)</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>1</td> <td>1,325.21</td> <td>155,468</td> <td>9.25</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2</td> <td>1,463.20</td> <td>149,437</td> <td>9.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td>3</td> <td>2,528.96</td> <td>243,252</td> <td>10.27</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4</td> <td>2,434.37</td> <td>223,817</td> <td>10.56</td> </tr> <tr> <td>5 YTD</td> <td>475.46</td> <td>43,110</td> <td>10.56</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total</td> <td>8,227.20</td> <td>815,084</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>It's pretty amazing how the total distance adds up when you keep running week after week. The 8,227 kilometres I've run since July 27, 2013 are enough to take me from St. John's, Newfoundland clear across to Vancouver, British Columbia (by road, not as the crow flies) with another 766 kilometres to spare - enough to turn around and backtrack into Yoho National Park, just outside of Banff. Looked at differently, it's just over one-fifth of the distance around the entire planet. </p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/deer_in_dundas_valley_2017_10.jpg" alt="Deer in Dundas Valley" title="Deer in Dundas Valley"><br> Deer in Dundas Valley</p> <p>Likewise, I've been tracking my daily steps since October 23, 2014, and in that time I have taken a hard-to-get-my-head-around total of 24,845,396 steps. That works out to an average of 22,485 steps a day over the past three years.</p> <p>Finally, as I proceed through my fifth year of running, I'm conscious of the fact that among North Americans who undertake efforts to lose weight, the chance of succeeding in maintaining weight loss over five years is a dispiriting five percent. The other 95 percent regain all the lost weight and then some. </p> <p>While I continue to struggle with a lingering squishiness around my middle, I have so far managed to stay ahead of some pretty long odds - despite being caught in a bit of a fitness tailspin over the past year. That is something to be grateful for (and probably worth its own article in the future). </p> <p>Running has improved my quality of life immeasurably, and I hope to be able to report in my next dispatch that I have managed to find a way through this extended funk and emerge on the other side with a renewed and sustained passion. </p> <p class="image"> <img src="/static/images/escarpment_rail_trail_2017_10.jpg" alt="Running on the Escarpment Rail Trail" title="Running on the Escarpment Rail Trail"><br> Running on the Escarpment Rail Trail</p> <p><em>More Reading:</em></p> <ul> <li><a href="/blog/135/a_year_of_running">A Year of Running</a></li> <li><a href="/blog/155/a_second_year_of_running_plus_some_not_running_and_other_stuff">A Second Year of Running, Plus Some Not-Running and Other Stuff</a></li> <li><a href="/blog/170/a_third_year_of_running_plus_various_other_experiments">A Third Year of Running, Plus Various Other Experiments</a></li> </ul> Ryan McGreal 2 http://quandyfactory.com/blog/190/its_past_time_to_remove_civic_artifacts_celebrating_white_supremacists 2017-08-23T12:00:00Z It's Past Time to Remove Civic Artifacts Celebrating White Supremacists <p class="initial">With respect to the Confederate statues, monuments and flags that today's civil rights activists are demanding to be removed from esteemed American public spaces, we must acknowledge that there is, indeed, a widespread erasure of history connected to these artifacts.</p> <p>Specifically, the statues and flags themselves are both a deliberate, targeted reaction to the civil rights movements that pushed for equality and justice; and the product of a revisionist false history that downplayed the central role of slavery in the conflict that led to the American Civil War.</p> <p>As the Southern Poverty Law Center <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/20160421/whose-heritage-public-symbols-confederacy">has carefully documented</a>, the Confederate artifacts were installed in two clusters: the first decade of the 1900s, during the 'Jim Crow' era of retrenchment, segregation and disenfranchisement that followed Reconstruction; and again during the Civil Rights movement of the 1960s, in which the passage of the <em>Civil Rights Act</em> and <em>Voting Rights Act</em> marked major milestones in the arduous and still-ongoing struggle to overturn that Jim Crow-era segregation. </p> <p class="image"> <img style="max-width: 95%; height: auto" src="/static/images/splc_confederate_monuments_by_year.png" alt="Installation of Confederate monuments by year (Image Credit: Southern Poverty Law Center)" title="Installation of Confederate monuments by year (Image Credit: Southern Poverty Law Center)"><br> Installation of Confederate monuments by year (Image Credit: Southern Poverty Law Center)</p> <p>By and large, these Confederate artifacts were installed explicitly as part of the long rearguard campaign against granting the full rights of citizenship to African-Americans. They were installed precisely because they are a celebration of the white supremacist leaders who fought a civil war against their own country to preserve the horror of slavery.</p> <p>They were installed during the long backlash after the Reconstruction era in order for white supremacists to send an unmistakable message to emancipated slaves: <em>we are still in charge</em>.</p> <p class="initial">In more recent decades, as it has become less acceptable to use overtly white supremacist language (at least until the past year or so), the right-wing narrative on the Civil War has shifted to the argument that it was fought over "states' rights" and southern pride, not slavery. </p> <p>This is revisionist nonsense. If you are not sure what the Civil War was fought over, you need only read the words of Alexander H. Stephens, Vice-President of the Confederacy, in the so-called "<a href="http://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/document/cornerstone-speech/">Cornerstone Speech</a>" he delivered in Savannah, Georgia on March 21, 1861. It is worth quoting at some length:</p> <blockquote> <p>But not to be tedious in enumerating the numerous changes for the better, allow me to allude to one other though last, not least. <strong><em>The new constitution has put at rest, forever, all the agitating questions relating to our peculiar institution African slavery as it exists amongst us the proper status of the negro in our form of civilization. This was the immediate cause of the late rupture and present revolution.</em></strong> Jefferson in his forecast, had anticipated this, as the 'rock upon which the old Union would split.' He was right. What was conjecture with him, is now a realized fact.</p> <p>But whether he fully comprehended the great truth upon which that rock stood and stands, may be doubted. The prevailing ideas entertained by him and most of the leading statesmen at the time of the formation of the old constitution, were that the enslavement of the African was in violation of the laws of nature; that it was wrong in principle, socially, morally, and politically. It was an evil they knew not well how to deal with, but the general opinion of the men of that day was that, somehow or other in the order of Providence, the institution would be evanescent and pass away. This idea, though not incorporated in the constitution, was the prevailing idea at that time. ...</p> <p><strong><em>Our new government is founded upon exactly the opposite idea; its foundations are laid, its cornerstone rests, upon the great truth that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery subordination to the superior race is his natural and normal condition.</em></strong> This, our new government, is the first, in the history of the world, based upon this great physical, philosophical, and moral truth. ...</p> <p>Those at the North, who still cling to these errors, with a zeal above knowledge, we justly denominate fanatics. All fanaticism springs from an aberration of the mind from a defect in reasoning. It is a species of insanity. One of the most striking characteristics of insanity, in many instances, is forming correct conclusions from fancied or erroneous premises; so with the anti-slavery fanatics. Their conclusions are right if their premises were. They assume that the negro is equal, and hence conclude that he is entitled to equal privileges and rights with the white man. [emphasis added]</p> </blockquote> <p>Anyone who tries to tell you that the Confederate flag and the statues to Confederate leaders are just non-racist symbols of southern culture is either sadly misinformed or else engaged in a malicious deceit in order to justify continued white supremacism. </p> <p>These artifacts are not a neutral reflection of history, and removing them is by no means an erasure of that history. Rather, removing them is the first step in moving past the reprehensible practice of honouring and celebrating white supremacists, and thereby moving incrementally toward a public realm in which all people can enjoy the full rights and dignities to which everyone has an equal claim - despite the Confederate Constitution's morally repugnant insistence to the contrary.</p> Ryan McGreal 2