Ontario Election 2018: Winnable Ridings via Strategic Voting
The PC Party is projected to win Thursday's election. However, with strategic voting, it's still possible to stop this from happening.
By Ryan McGreal.
1888 words. Approximately a 6 to 12 minute read.
Posted June 05, 2018 in Blog.
I downloaded the latest dataset from tooclosetocall.ca and added some flags to the rows to indicate which ridings are winnable through strategic voting.
How to read this table:
Each row is an Ontario riding. The four columns after the riding name are the riding-level support for each party. The next column, "NDP Lead", indicates whether the NDP is leading (1) or not (0). The "PC Lead" column indicates whether the PC Party is leading. the "NDP 2nd" column indicates whether the NDP is in second place.
The last column, "Winnable", indicates either that the NDP is leading or that the combined NDP + Liberal + Green support is higher than the PC support.
If you are considering voting strategically, look up your riding. If the PC Lead is 1 and the Winnable column is 1, this is a riding where strategic voting makes sense. Check which party is in second place and consider casting your vote for that party's candidate as the best option to defeat the PC candidate.
Examples:
Bay of Quinte: the PC candidate is in the lead with 44.8% support. The NDP candidate has 32.6% and the Liberal candidate has 17.2%. Liberal- and Green-leaning voters in this riding who want to defeat the PC candidate should consider voting NDP.
Don Valley West: the PC candidate is in the lead with 40.3% support. The Liberal candidate has 32.6% and the NDP candidate has 23.4%. NDP- and Green-leaning voters in this riding who want to defeat the PC candidate should consider voting Liberal.
Last Updated June 6, 2018.
| 50 | 68 | 53 | 110 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riding | OLP | PC | NDP | Green | NDP Lead | PC Lead | NDP 2nd | Winnable |
| Ajax | 30.3% | 36.3% | 30.2% | 3.2% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Algoma-Manitoulin | 10.3% | 23.0% | 63.5% | 3.3% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill | 26.0% | 45.7% | 24.6% | 3.7% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Barrie-Innisfil | 20.3% | 44.0% | 29.7% | 6.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte | 19.6% | 45.0% | 28.3% | 7.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bay of Quinte | 20.0% | 44.4% | 30.3% | 5.3% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Beaches-East York | 21.6% | 20.3% | 52.4% | 5.6% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brampton Centre | 20.4% | 32.2% | 41.3% | 6.1% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brampton East | 14.9% | 19.6% | 63.4% | 2.1% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brampton North | 21.6% | 31.1% | 43.7% | 3.6% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Riding | OLP | PC | NDP | Green | NDP Lead | PC Lead | NDP 2nd | Winnable |
| Brampton South | 25.8% | 34.4% | 36.3% | 3.4% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brampton West | 26.7% | 30.2% | 40.5% | 2.6% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brantford-Brant | 16.5% | 38.5% | 40.7% | 4.3% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound | 9.8% | 52.6% | 28.7% | 8.8% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Burlington | 23.9% | 43.8% | 28.1% | 4.3% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Cambridge | 22.0% | 39.1% | 33.0% | 5.9% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Carleton | 16.0% | 54.3% | 23.8% | 5.9% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chatham-Kent-Leamington | 4.8% | 42.0% | 47.8% | 5.4% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Davenport | 25.7% | 14.2% | 54.8% | 5.3% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Don Valley East | 35.6% | 32.7% | 28.0% | 3.8% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Riding | OLP | PC | NDP | Green | NDP Lead | PC Lead | NDP 2nd | Winnable |
| Don Valley North | 30.3% | 40.0% | 26.0% | 3.7% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Don Valley West | 33.3% | 40.4% | 22.7% | 3.5% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Dufferin-Caledon | 15.0% | 44.2% | 24.6% | 16.2% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Durham | 16.4% | 39.1% | 40.4% | 4.1% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eglinton-Lawrence | 32.0% | 41.6% | 23.0% | 3.4% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Elgin-Middlesex-London | 1.0% | 52.5% | 41.4% | 5.1% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Essex | 0.0% | 25.5% | 71.0% | 3.5% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Etobicoke Centre | 28.6% | 41.0% | 27.4% | 3.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Etobicoke-Lakeshore | 26.9% | 41.4% | 27.4% | 4.4% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Etobicoke North | 22.7% | 39.8% | 35.1% | 2.4% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Riding | OLP | PC | NDP | Green | NDP Lead | PC Lead | NDP 2nd | Winnable |
| Flamborough-Glanbrook | 16.3% | 41.6% | 37.1% | 5.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Glengarry-Prescott-Russell | 32.3% | 37.9% | 26.2% | 3.6% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Guelph | 10.1% | 28.5% | 29.3% | 32.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Haldimand-Norfolk | 5.4% | 56.4% | 33.1% | 5.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock | 18.0% | 45.2% | 32.4% | 4.4% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Hamilton Centre | 4.5% | 16.8% | 69.2% | 9.5% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Hamilton East-Stoney Creek | 12.6% | 22.4% | 60.8% | 4.2% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Hamilton Mountain | 10.7% | 21.7% | 63.1% | 4.5% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas | 23.7% | 31.5% | 39.4% | 5.4% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Hastings-Lennox and Addington | 12.7% | 45.3% | 35.9% | 6.1% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Riding | OLP | PC | NDP | Green | NDP Lead | PC Lead | NDP 2nd | Winnable |
| Humber River-Black Creek | 23.0% | 19.7% | 55.5% | 1.8% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Huron-Bruce | 12.2% | 45.2% | 38.8% | 3.7% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kanata-Carleton | 21.0% | 46.7% | 25.2% | 7.2% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kenora-Rainy River | 8.6% | 38.6% | 49.7% | 3.1% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kiiwetinoong | 4.3% | 17.3% | 74.5% | 3.8% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kingston and the Islands | 21.8% | 26.9% | 43.4% | 7.9% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| King-Vaughan | 30.2% | 40.5% | 26.1% | 3.3% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kitchener Centre | 23.3% | 32.0% | 38.1% | 6.7% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kitchener-Conestoga | 20.1% | 41.7% | 31.5% | 6.6% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kitchener South-Hespeler | 20.1% | 38.8% | 34.5% | 6.6% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Riding | OLP | PC | NDP | Green | NDP Lead | PC Lead | NDP 2nd | Winnable |
| Lambton-Kent-Middlesex | 1.2% | 51.6% | 42.4% | 4.9% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston | 9.2% | 52.4% | 31.1% | 7.3% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Leeds-Grenville-1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes | 3.3% | 61.4% | 30.1% | 5.2% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| London-Fanshawe | 1.2% | 28.4% | 66.1% | 4.3% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| London North Centre | 10.1% | 35.6% | 48.6% | 5.6% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| London West | 4.6% | 35.2% | 55.9% | 4.2% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Markham-Stouffville | 28.0% | 41.9% | 26.2% | 3.9% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Markham-Thornhill | 30.0% | 42.9% | 24.5% | 2.6% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Markham-Unionville | 21.1% | 49.5% | 25.3% | 4.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Milton | 23.7% | 44.5% | 28.1% | 3.8% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Riding | OLP | PC | NDP | Green | NDP Lead | PC Lead | NDP 2nd | Winnable |
| Mississauga Centre | 30.7% | 34.8% | 31.2% | 3.3% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mississauga East-Cooksville | 29.6% | 36.5% | 29.9% | 4.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mississauga-Erin Mills | 29.0% | 38.1% | 30.2% | 2.6% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mississauga-Lakeshore | 29.3% | 41.7% | 25.6% | 3.5% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Mississauga-Malton | 29.9% | 32.5% | 34.4% | 3.1% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mississauga-Streetsville | 29.9% | 37.5% | 28.3% | 4.2% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mushkegowuk-James Bay | 16.0% | 13.1% | 69.5% | 1.5% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nepean | 23.4% | 45.5% | 25.4% | 5.7% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Newmarket-Aurora | 25.1% | 44.5% | 26.0% | 4.3% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Niagara Centre | 2.9% | 30.7% | 62.1% | 4.2% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Riding | OLP | PC | NDP | Green | NDP Lead | PC Lead | NDP 2nd | Winnable |
| Niagara Falls | 0.0% | 36.2% | 60.3% | 3.5% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Niagara West | 7.7% | 52.8% | 33.4% | 6.1% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Nickel Belt | 7.5% | 17.2% | 71.6% | 3.7% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nipissing | 9.7% | 47.8% | 38.4% | 4.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Northumberland-Peterborough South | 21.7% | 42.2% | 31.6% | 4.5% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Oakville | 28.1% | 45.3% | 22.7% | 4.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Oakville North-Burlington | 26.0% | 44.3% | 26.1% | 3.6% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Orleans | 34.5% | 38.7% | 22.8% | 4.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Oshawa | 4.1% | 36.2% | 55.8% | 3.9% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ottawa Centre | 34.3% | 22.8% | 34.2% | 8.7% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Riding | OLP | PC | NDP | Green | NDP Lead | PC Lead | NDP 2nd | Winnable |
| Ottawa South | 32.2% | 37.2% | 25.8% | 4.8% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Ottawa-Vanier | 38.2% | 27.3% | 28.7% | 5.8% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ottawa West-Nepean | 28.1% | 38.1% | 27.1% | 6.6% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Oxford | 7.2% | 51.6% | 36.1% | 5.1% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Parkdale-High Park | 22.2% | 18.6% | 53.8% | 5.5% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Parry Sound-Muskoka | 9.0% | 45.6% | 26.0% | 19.4% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Perth-Wellington | 19.3% | 45.0% | 30.5% | 5.2% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Peterborough-Kawartha | 25.0% | 38.2% | 32.1% | 4.6% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Pickering-Uxbridge | 26.9% | 40.0% | 28.5% | 4.5% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke | 3.3% | 66.0% | 27.2% | 3.5% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Riding | OLP | PC | NDP | Green | NDP Lead | PC Lead | NDP 2nd | Winnable |
| Richmond Hill | 27.7% | 43.4% | 25.4% | 3.5% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sarnia-Lambton | 0.0% | 45.3% | 50.0% | 4.7% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sault Ste. Marie | 24.4% | 36.2% | 36.7% | 2.6% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Scarborough-Agincourt | 28.4% | 42.0% | 26.8% | 2.9% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Scarborough Centre | 29.0% | 30.4% | 37.1% | 3.4% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Scarborough-Guildwood | 29.2% | 35.7% | 32.0% | 3.1% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Scarborough North | 21.5% | 37.5% | 39.2% | 1.8% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Scarborough-Rouge Park | 27.4% | 31.9% | 38.2% | 2.5% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Scarborough Southwest | 28.9% | 28.4% | 38.2% | 4.4% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Simcoe-Grey | 13.0% | 51.9% | 27.1% | 8.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Riding | OLP | PC | NDP | Green | NDP Lead | PC Lead | NDP 2nd | Winnable |
| Simcoe North | 17.2% | 43.4% | 31.2% | 8.2% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Spadina-Fort York | 27.9% | 24.8% | 41.5% | 5.8% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| St. Catharines | 22.1% | 35.0% | 38.7% | 4.2% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry | 4.3% | 58.5% | 34.3% | 3.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sudbury | 24.1% | 25.1% | 46.9% | 3.8% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Thornhill | 25.5% | 50.3% | 21.7% | 2.5% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Thunder Bay-Atikokan | 34.5% | 21.0% | 40.5% | 4.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Thunder Bay-Superior North | 37.7% | 14.7% | 43.3% | 4.3% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Timiskaming-Cochrane | 9.0% | 22.9% | 66.0% | 2.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Timmins | 6.1% | 36.7% | 55.1% | 2.1% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Riding | OLP | PC | NDP | Green | NDP Lead | PC Lead | NDP 2nd | Winnable |
| Toronto Centre | 37.9% | 20.4% | 36.3% | 5.4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Toronto-Danforth | 20.8% | 15.9% | 57.8% | 5.5% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Toronto-St. Paul's | 35.7% | 32.2% | 26.4% | 5.7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| University-Rosedale | 27.7% | 25.8% | 38.9% | 7.6% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vaughan-Woodbridge | 35.5% | 35.9% | 26.1% | 2.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Waterloo | 15.5% | 32.2% | 47.2% | 5.1% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Wellington-Halton Hills | 15.1% | 51.7% | 25.6% | 7.6% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Whitby | 17.2% | 45.9% | 32.5% | 4.4% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Willowdale | 30.4% | 39.3% | 26.1% | 4.2% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Windsor-Tecumseh | 0.0% | 19.7% | 74.6% | 5.6% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Riding | OLP | PC | NDP | Green | NDP Lead | PC Lead | NDP 2nd | Winnable |
| Windsor West | 19.4% | 20.0% | 57.3% | 3.4% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| York Centre | 23.9% | 40.0% | 32.6% | 3.5% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| York South-Weston | 27.3% | 18.1% | 52.0% | 2.7% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| York-Simcoe | 20.5% | 40.2% | 32.8% | 6.5% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |