Ontario Election 2018: Winnable Ridings via Strategic Voting

The PC Party is projected to win Thursday's election. However, with strategic voting, it's still possible to stop this from happening.

By Ryan McGreal

Posted June 05, 2018 in Blog (Last Updated June 05, 2018)

I downloaded the latest dataset from tooclosetocall.ca and added some flags to the rows to indicate which ridings are winnable through strategic voting.

How to read this table:

Each row is an Ontario riding. The four columns after the riding name are the riding-level support for each party. The next column, "NDP Lead", indicates whether the NDP is leading (1) or not (0). The "PC Lead" column indicates whether the PC Party is leading. the "NDP 2nd" column indicates whether the NDP is in second place.

The last column, "Winnable", indicates either that the NDP is leading or that the combined NDP + Liberal + Green support is higher than the PC support.

If you are considering voting strategically, look up your riding. If the PC Lead is 1 and the Winnable column is 1, this is a riding where strategic voting makes sense. Check which party is in second place and consider casting your vote for that party's candidate as the best option to defeat the PC candidate.

Examples:

Bay of Quinte: the PC candidate is in the lead with 44.8% support. The NDP candidate has 32.6% and the Liberal candidate has 17.2%. Liberal- and Green-leaning voters in this riding who want to defeat the PC candidate should consider voting NDP.

Don Valley West: the PC candidate is in the lead with 40.3% support. The Liberal candidate has 32.6% and the NDP candidate has 23.4%. NDP- and Green-leaning voters in this riding who want to defeat the PC candidate should consider voting Liberal.

Last Updated June 6, 2018.

Winnable Ridings
50 68 53 110
Riding OLP PC NDP Green NDP Lead PC Lead NDP 2nd Winnable
Ajax 30.3% 36.3% 30.2% 3.2% 0 1 1 1
Algoma-Manitoulin 10.3% 23.0% 63.5% 3.3% 1 0 0 1
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill 26.0% 45.7% 24.6% 3.7% 0 1 1 1
Barrie-Innisfil 20.3% 44.0% 29.7% 6.0% 0 1 1 1
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte 19.6% 45.0% 28.3% 7.0% 0 1 1 1
Bay of Quinte 20.0% 44.4% 30.3% 5.3% 0 1 1 1
Beaches-East York 21.6% 20.3% 52.4% 5.6% 1 0 0 1
Brampton Centre 20.4% 32.2% 41.3% 6.1% 1 0 0 1
Brampton East 14.9% 19.6% 63.4% 2.1% 1 0 0 1
Brampton North 21.6% 31.1% 43.7% 3.6% 1 0 0 1
Riding OLP PC NDP Green NDP Lead PC Lead NDP 2nd Winnable
Brampton South 25.8% 34.4% 36.3% 3.4% 1 0 0 1
Brampton West 26.7% 30.2% 40.5% 2.6% 1 0 0 1
Brantford-Brant 16.5% 38.5% 40.7% 4.3% 1 0 0 1
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound 9.8% 52.6% 28.7% 8.8% 0 1 1 0
Burlington 23.9% 43.8% 28.1% 4.3% 0 1 1 1
Cambridge 22.0% 39.1% 33.0% 5.9% 0 1 1 1
Carleton 16.0% 54.3% 23.8% 5.9% 0 1 1 0
Chatham-Kent-Leamington 4.8% 42.0% 47.8% 5.4% 1 0 0 1
Davenport 25.7% 14.2% 54.8% 5.3% 1 0 0 1
Don Valley East 35.6% 32.7% 28.0% 3.8% 0 0 0 1
Riding OLP PC NDP Green NDP Lead PC Lead NDP 2nd Winnable
Don Valley North 30.3% 40.0% 26.0% 3.7% 0 1 0 1
Don Valley West 33.3% 40.4% 22.7% 3.5% 0 1 0 1
Dufferin-Caledon 15.0% 44.2% 24.6% 16.2% 0 1 1 1
Durham 16.4% 39.1% 40.4% 4.1% 1 0 0 1
Eglinton-Lawrence 32.0% 41.6% 23.0% 3.4% 0 1 0 1
Elgin-Middlesex-London 1.0% 52.5% 41.4% 5.1% 0 1 1 0
Essex 0.0% 25.5% 71.0% 3.5% 1 0 0 1
Etobicoke Centre 28.6% 41.0% 27.4% 3.0% 0 1 1 1
Etobicoke-Lakeshore 26.9% 41.4% 27.4% 4.4% 0 1 1 1
Etobicoke North 22.7% 39.8% 35.1% 2.4% 0 1 1 1
Riding OLP PC NDP Green NDP Lead PC Lead NDP 2nd Winnable
Flamborough-Glanbrook 16.3% 41.6% 37.1% 5.0% 0 1 1 1
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell 32.3% 37.9% 26.2% 3.6% 0 1 0 1
Guelph 10.1% 28.5% 29.3% 32.0% 0 0 0 1
Haldimand-Norfolk 5.4% 56.4% 33.1% 5.0% 0 1 1 0
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock 18.0% 45.2% 32.4% 4.4% 0 1 1 1
Hamilton Centre 4.5% 16.8% 69.2% 9.5% 1 0 0 1
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek 12.6% 22.4% 60.8% 4.2% 1 0 0 1
Hamilton Mountain 10.7% 21.7% 63.1% 4.5% 1 0 0 1
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas 23.7% 31.5% 39.4% 5.4% 1 0 0 1
Hastings-Lennox and Addington 12.7% 45.3% 35.9% 6.1% 0 1 1 1
Riding OLP PC NDP Green NDP Lead PC Lead NDP 2nd Winnable
Humber River-Black Creek 23.0% 19.7% 55.5% 1.8% 1 0 0 1
Huron-Bruce 12.2% 45.2% 38.8% 3.7% 0 1 1 1
Kanata-Carleton 21.0% 46.7% 25.2% 7.2% 0 1 1 1
Kenora-Rainy River 8.6% 38.6% 49.7% 3.1% 1 0 0 1
Kiiwetinoong 4.3% 17.3% 74.5% 3.8% 1 0 0 1
Kingston and the Islands 21.8% 26.9% 43.4% 7.9% 1 0 0 1
King-Vaughan 30.2% 40.5% 26.1% 3.3% 0 1 0 1
Kitchener Centre 23.3% 32.0% 38.1% 6.7% 1 0 0 1
Kitchener-Conestoga 20.1% 41.7% 31.5% 6.6% 0 1 1 1
Kitchener South-Hespeler 20.1% 38.8% 34.5% 6.6% 0 1 1 1
Riding OLP PC NDP Green NDP Lead PC Lead NDP 2nd Winnable
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex 1.2% 51.6% 42.4% 4.9% 0 1 1 0
Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston 9.2% 52.4% 31.1% 7.3% 0 1 1 0
Leeds-Grenville-1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes 3.3% 61.4% 30.1% 5.2% 0 1 1 0
London-Fanshawe 1.2% 28.4% 66.1% 4.3% 1 0 0 1
London North Centre 10.1% 35.6% 48.6% 5.6% 1 0 0 1
London West 4.6% 35.2% 55.9% 4.2% 1 0 0 1
Markham-Stouffville 28.0% 41.9% 26.2% 3.9% 0 1 0 1
Markham-Thornhill 30.0% 42.9% 24.5% 2.6% 0 1 0 1
Markham-Unionville 21.1% 49.5% 25.3% 4.0% 0 1 1 1
Milton 23.7% 44.5% 28.1% 3.8% 0 1 1 1
Riding OLP PC NDP Green NDP Lead PC Lead NDP 2nd Winnable
Mississauga Centre 30.7% 34.8% 31.2% 3.3% 0 1 1 1
Mississauga East-Cooksville 29.6% 36.5% 29.9% 4.0% 0 1 1 1
Mississauga-Erin Mills 29.0% 38.1% 30.2% 2.6% 0 1 1 1
Mississauga-Lakeshore 29.3% 41.7% 25.6% 3.5% 0 1 0 1
Mississauga-Malton 29.9% 32.5% 34.4% 3.1% 1 0 0 1
Mississauga-Streetsville 29.9% 37.5% 28.3% 4.2% 0 1 1 1
Mushkegowuk-James Bay 16.0% 13.1% 69.5% 1.5% 1 0 0 1
Nepean 23.4% 45.5% 25.4% 5.7% 0 1 1 1
Newmarket-Aurora 25.1% 44.5% 26.0% 4.3% 0 1 1 1
Niagara Centre 2.9% 30.7% 62.1% 4.2% 1 0 0 1
Riding OLP PC NDP Green NDP Lead PC Lead NDP 2nd Winnable
Niagara Falls 0.0% 36.2% 60.3% 3.5% 1 0 0 1
Niagara West 7.7% 52.8% 33.4% 6.1% 0 1 1 0
Nickel Belt 7.5% 17.2% 71.6% 3.7% 1 0 0 1
Nipissing 9.7% 47.8% 38.4% 4.0% 0 1 1 1
Northumberland-Peterborough South 21.7% 42.2% 31.6% 4.5% 0 1 1 1
Oakville 28.1% 45.3% 22.7% 4.0% 0 1 0 1
Oakville North-Burlington 26.0% 44.3% 26.1% 3.6% 0 1 1 1
Orleans 34.5% 38.7% 22.8% 4.0% 0 1 0 1
Oshawa 4.1% 36.2% 55.8% 3.9% 1 0 0 1
Ottawa Centre 34.3% 22.8% 34.2% 8.7% 1 0 0 1
Riding OLP PC NDP Green NDP Lead PC Lead NDP 2nd Winnable
Ottawa South 32.2% 37.2% 25.8% 4.8% 0 1 0 1
Ottawa-Vanier 38.2% 27.3% 28.7% 5.8% 0 0 0 1
Ottawa West-Nepean 28.1% 38.1% 27.1% 6.6% 0 1 1 1
Oxford 7.2% 51.6% 36.1% 5.1% 0 1 1 0
Parkdale-High Park 22.2% 18.6% 53.8% 5.5% 1 0 0 1
Parry Sound-Muskoka 9.0% 45.6% 26.0% 19.4% 0 1 1 1
Perth-Wellington 19.3% 45.0% 30.5% 5.2% 0 1 1 1
Peterborough-Kawartha 25.0% 38.2% 32.1% 4.6% 0 1 1 1
Pickering-Uxbridge 26.9% 40.0% 28.5% 4.5% 0 1 1 1
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke 3.3% 66.0% 27.2% 3.5% 0 1 1 0
Riding OLP PC NDP Green NDP Lead PC Lead NDP 2nd Winnable
Richmond Hill 27.7% 43.4% 25.4% 3.5% 0 1 0 1
Sarnia-Lambton 0.0% 45.3% 50.0% 4.7% 1 0 0 1
Sault Ste. Marie 24.4% 36.2% 36.7% 2.6% 0 1 1 1
Scarborough-Agincourt 28.4% 42.0% 26.8% 2.9% 0 1 0 1
Scarborough Centre 29.0% 30.4% 37.1% 3.4% 1 0 0 1
Scarborough-Guildwood 29.2% 35.7% 32.0% 3.1% 0 1 1 1
Scarborough North 21.5% 37.5% 39.2% 1.8% 1 0 0 1
Scarborough-Rouge Park 27.4% 31.9% 38.2% 2.5% 1 0 0 1
Scarborough Southwest 28.9% 28.4% 38.2% 4.4% 1 0 0 1
Simcoe-Grey 13.0% 51.9% 27.1% 8.0% 0 1 1 0
Riding OLP PC NDP Green NDP Lead PC Lead NDP 2nd Winnable
Simcoe North 17.2% 43.4% 31.2% 8.2% 0 1 1 1
Spadina-Fort York 27.9% 24.8% 41.5% 5.8% 1 0 0 1
St. Catharines 22.1% 35.0% 38.7% 4.2% 1 0 0 1
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry 4.3% 58.5% 34.3% 3.0% 0 1 1 0
Sudbury 24.1% 25.1% 46.9% 3.8% 1 0 0 1
Thornhill 25.5% 50.3% 21.7% 2.5% 0 1 0 0
Thunder Bay-Atikokan 34.5% 21.0% 40.5% 4.0% 1 0 0 1
Thunder Bay-Superior North 37.7% 14.7% 43.3% 4.3% 1 0 0 1
Timiskaming-Cochrane 9.0% 22.9% 66.0% 2.0% 1 0 0 1
Timmins 6.1% 36.7% 55.1% 2.1% 1 0 0 1
Riding OLP PC NDP Green NDP Lead PC Lead NDP 2nd Winnable
Toronto Centre 37.9% 20.4% 36.3% 5.4% 0 0 0 1
Toronto-Danforth 20.8% 15.9% 57.8% 5.5% 1 0 0 1
Toronto-St. Paul's 35.7% 32.2% 26.4% 5.7% 0 0 0 1
University-Rosedale 27.7% 25.8% 38.9% 7.6% 1 0 0 1
Vaughan-Woodbridge 35.5% 35.9% 26.1% 2.5% 0 0 0 1
Waterloo 15.5% 32.2% 47.2% 5.1% 1 0 0 1
Wellington-Halton Hills 15.1% 51.7% 25.6% 7.6% 0 1 1 0
Whitby 17.2% 45.9% 32.5% 4.4% 0 1 1 1
Willowdale 30.4% 39.3% 26.1% 4.2% 0 1 0 1
Windsor-Tecumseh 0.0% 19.7% 74.6% 5.6% 1 0 0 1
Riding OLP PC NDP Green NDP Lead PC Lead NDP 2nd Winnable
Windsor West 19.4% 20.0% 57.3% 3.4% 1 0 0 1
York Centre 23.9% 40.0% 32.6% 3.5% 0 1 1 1
York South-Weston 27.3% 18.1% 52.0% 2.7% 1 0 0 1
York-Simcoe 20.5% 40.2% 32.8% 6.5% 0 1 1 1